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A pitcher’s record is one of the most useless statistics in the game of baseball, which happens to be the most numbers-driven of the four major sports. You can very easily compile win after win if you have a productive offense behind you, just ask Toronto's A.J. Burnett.
Burnett is 16-9 with a 4.58 ERA this season. Only four pitchers with more than ten wins this season have a higher earned run average. Burnett is posting one of the worst ERA's of his career, but his win/loss record is easily his best.
It just so happens that the Blue Jays come to the ballpark ready to hit when Burnett is on the mound.
Toronto scores an average of 5.19 runs per game when A.J. pitches, which has allowed him to record wins and often escape losses, when struggling on the mound.
Through Wednesday night’s games, the average team has scored 4.62 runs per contest this season. That means that the Blue Jays give Burnett 0.57 more runs per game than the average pitcher, helping him win more games than everyone in baseball other than Brandon Webb and Cliff Lee (19) and Mike Mussina and Roy Halladay (16, as well).
Halladay, Burnett's teammate, is also 16-9 this season. However, Roy's ERA is 2.69, almost a full two runs less than that of A.J. Unfortunately for 'Doc', the Blue Jays score an average of 4.63 runs in his starts. That's barely above the league average, costing him wins despite his spectacular ERA.
I have compiled a list of eighty-two starting pitchers, each of whom has recorded either ten wins or ten losses so far in 2008. Then I calculated the difference between the average number of runs their team scores when they start to the MLB average (4.62).
Using these numbers, we can determine who has been great, bad, lucky, or unlucky on the mound this season.
The Ten Luckiest Pitcher, Team, Record, ERA, Runs For, Variance From MLB Average Kyle Kendrick, PHI, 11-7, 4.83, 7.00, +2.38
Gavin Floyd, CWS, 14-6, 3.70, 6.96, +2.34
Glen Perkins, MIN, 12-3, 3.96, 6.84, +2.22
John Maine, NYM, 10-8, 4.18, 6.62, +2.00
Ryan Dempster, CUBS, 15-5, 2.85, 6.54, +1.92
Armando Galarraga, DET, 12-4, 3.20, 6.46, +1.84
Livan Hernandez, MIN/COL, 11-11, 6.14, 6.25, +1.63
Javier Vazquez, CWS, 10-11, 4.37, 6.21, +1.59
Mike Pelfrey, NYM, 13-8, 3.70, 6.18, +1.56
Vicente Padilla, TEX, 12-7, 4.98, 6.13, +1.51
Guys like Floyd, Perkins, Dempster and Galarraga have been great on the mound, with ERAs below 4.00, but Kendrick, Maine, Hernandez and Padilla have winning records despite ERAs well over that mark.
Padilla stands out the most. He has a 12-7 record, despite an ERA that is closer to 5.00 than anyone would like it to be. The Rangers’ high-powered offense scores 6.13 runs per game when Vicente is pitching, well above the league average. Without the help of his hitters, Padilla could very easily be 7-12.
The Ten Unluckiest Pitcher, Team, Record, ERA, Runs For, Variance From MLB Average Jason Bergmann, WSH, 2-10, 4.56, 2.72, (1.90)
Greg Smith, OAK, 6-13, 3.90, 2.79, (1.83)
Jo-Jo Reyes, ATL, 3-10, 5.34, 3.05, (1.57)
John Lannan, WSH, 7-12, 3.95, 3.22, (1.40)
Aaron Harang, CIN, 4-13, 5.35, 3.23, (1.39)
Matt Cain, SFG, 8-10, 3.55, 3.50, (1.12)
Barry Zito, SFG, 8-15, 5.31, 3.54, (1.08)
Luke Hochevar, KAN, 6-12, 5.51, 3.56, (1.06)
Paul Byrd, CLE/BOS, 9-11, 4.55, 3.83, (0.79)
Joe Blanton, OAK/PHI, 6-12, 4.75, 3.87, (0.75)
These numbers show you just how much a pitcher needs a consistent offense to help him succeed on the mound. Lannan’s ERA (3.95) is more than a full run lower than Padilla’s, but he’s 7-12 rather than 12-7 because of the 3.22 runs per game the Nationals score for him.
Oakland’s Smith is in a similar situation. He has a very respectable ERA (3.90) but is just 6-13 because the A’s score a horrid 2.79 runs per contest when he starts.
Some of these "unlucky" pitchers have been horrible this season like Reyes, Harang, and Hochvear, but their win/loss records would undoubtedly be better if their teams produced more when they get the ball.
San Francisco’s Cain is an interesting case, as well.
He has great numbers, with a 3.55 ERA and 161 strikeouts, but the Giants simply refuse to help him out. His ERA is good enough to have the 14-16 wins that guys like Mike Mussina, Aaron Cook, Joe Saunders, and Gavin Floyd (all with similar ERAs) have, but San Francisco's offense scores a minuscule 3.50 runs per game for the right-hander.
Of the eighty-two pitchers I analyzed, fifty-eight have ten or more wins. Of those ten-game winners, only ten have received less support than the MLB-average of 4.62 runs per start.
Ten-Game Winners With Below Average Support Pitcher, Team, Record, ERA, Runs For, Variance From MLB Average Chad Billingsley, LAD, 12-10, 3.15, 4.11, (0.51)
John Danks, CWS, 10-7, 3.30, 4.15, (0.47)
Derek Lowe, LAD, 10-11, 3.81, 4.38, (0.24)
Joe Saunders, LAA, 14-7, 3.67, 4.44, (0.18)
Cole Hamels, PHI, 11-8, 3.20, 4.44, (0.18)
Matt Garza, TB, 11-7, 3.53, 4.44, (0.18)
Gil Meche, KC, 10-10, 4.13, 4.44, (0.18)
Jeremy Guthrie, BAL, 10-10, 3.28, 4.51 (0.11)
Justin Verlander, DET, 10-14, 4.53, 4.53, (0.09)
James Shields, TB, 11-8, 3.75, 4.61 (0.01)
As you can see, the pitchers on this list with winning records have pitched very well. Billingsley, Hamels and Danks all have ERAs lower than 3.30 but are hovering around .500 due to a lack of support.
Hamels, in particular, has had a rough time getting help this season.
Cole has posted a 3.20 ERA with 162 strikeouts in 188 2/3 innings this season. Those numbers are terrific, maybe even among the ten-best in all of baseball when you take ERA, strikeouts and quality starts into account. However, the Phillies haven’t scored enough for him the season, leading to his "disappointing" 11-8 mark.
It has just been an odd stroke of bad luck for Hamels as the Phillies have a terrific lineup and are in the top half of the Majors in terms of runs scored this season.
In a numbers-driven game, statistics like these could easily be debated extensively from now until the first pitch of the 2009 season.
Andrew Perna is a Senior Writer for RealGM. Please feel free to contact him via e-mail with comments or questions on this piece: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com.
