A lot has changed in baseball over the last eighty years, expect for the monumental structure that resides at E. 161st Street and River Avenue in the Bronx.
The Royals have been major players in the free agent market, making a big run at Andruw Jones while signing Jose Guillen, but they did lose David Riske to the Brewers.
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I like to keep track of a simple to understand statistic that is supremely indicative of how much weight a player carries within the framework of his offense.
There are two hands involved with every run scored; one from the runner scoring and one from the batter who drives in the run. When a player hits a home run, he has two hands on the run.
In order to calculate the percentage of runs a player has a hand in, I add the run total with the RBI total, then divide by the amount of runs their team has scored and finally divide by two in order to get a percentage. Because there are many times throughout a season when a player scores a run without another player receiving credit for an RBI (ex: errors), the percentage is a little bit short, but it is certainly close.
This is a factor that should be heavily considered when the MVP voting is conducted, but it certainly is not an end all. Defensive impact amongst a host of other factors are not included here, but this stat is a very good gauge in determining who the real candidates are and also breaking ties since the true value of a player to his team is apparent.
Bill James' brilliant 'runs created' statistic is probably more accurate and less prone to anomalies, but the immediacy of the HOR percentage formula works better for me.
(All stats through Sunday's games)
2007 Leaders In HOR Percentage
1. Alex Rodriguez: 18.43%
2. Prince Fielder: 15.37%
3. Carlos Lee: 15.14%
4. Chase Utley: 14.81%
5. Matt Holliday: 14.72%
6. Albert Pujols: 14.46%
7. Justin Morneau: 14.34%
8. Torii Hunter: 14.34%
9. Dan Uggla: 14.32%
10. Vladimir Guerrero: 14.18%
11. Adam Dunn: 14.10%
12. Magglio Ordonez: 14.09%
In situations such as Rodriguez’s, this is when the true value of this statistic is realized. Rodriguez’s stats are impressive enough on their own, but when you take into account how much weight he is pulling in a Yankees line-up that is filled with talent, albeit struggling talent this season, it is truly remarkable.
Does Rodriguez deserve to be MVP regardless of whether or not the Yankees make the playoffs or even finish above .500? Assuming his pace remains fairly constant, he certainly will deserve the MVP.
In an upcoming article next week, we will examine the historical perspective of Rodriguez’s percentage production. To give you an idea in how much weight Rodriguez has carried, in Baby Ruth’s legendary 1921 season, he had a hand on 18.35% of the Yankees’ runs.
In the National League, Prince Fielder is the choice for MVP. Fielder is first in home runs, second in RBIs, fourth in OPS and the Brewers are also in first place. Fielder isn't running away from his NL competitors the way Rodriguez is in the AL, but he is the unquestioned leader right now.
2007 Hands On Runs Per Game
1. Alex Rodriguez: .968
2. Magglio Ordoneez: .853
3. Gary Sheffield: .796
4. Chase Utley: .772
5. Prince Fielder: .759
6. Vladimir Guerrero: .747
7. Justin Morneau: .740
8. Carlos Guillen: .732
9. Ryan Howard: .727
10. Victor Martinez: .715
11. Torii Hunter: .712
12. Jimmy Rollins: .701
This statistic is calculated by adding runs and RBIs together, then dividing by two and finally dividing by the number of games the player has played in. It is a fairly clear indication of how much scoring a player produces in each individual game. High-octane offenses such as Detroit and Philadelphia will produce leaders in this category that won't be seen as high on the percentage rankings.
2007 Percentage Of Hands On Runs (Team Leaders)
Angels, Vladimir Guerrero: 14.18%
Athletics, Nick Swisher: 10.83%
Astros, Carlos Lee: 15.14%
Blue Jays, Alex Rios: 13.55%
Braves, Edgar Renteria: 12.67%
Brewers, Prince Fielder: 15.38%
Cardinals, Albert Pujols: 14.46%
Cubs, Alfonso Soriano/Derrek Lee: 11.25%
Devil Rays, Carl Crawford: 12.14%
Diamondbacks, Eric Byrnes: 13.83%
Dodgers, Russell Martin: 13.71%
Giants, Ray Durham: 12.39%
Indians, Grady Sizemore: 12.44%
Mariners, Ichiro Suzuki: 12.03%
Marlins, Dan Uggla: 14.32%
Mets, Carlos Beltran: 12.77%
Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman: 13.95%
Padres, Adrian Gonzalez: 13.65%
Phillies, Chase Utley, 14.81%
Pirates, Jason Bay: 13.70%
Rangers, Sammy Sosa: 11.63%
Reds, Adam Dunn: 14.10%
Red Sox, David Oriz: 12.47%
Rockies, Matt Holliday: 14.72%
Royals, David DeJesus: 12.18%
Tigers, Magglio Ordonez: 14.09%
Twins, Torii Hunter/Justin Morneau: 14.34%
White Sox, Paul Konerko: 12.87%
Yankees, Alex Rodriguez: 18.43%
Swisher, Renteria, Byrnes, Durham, Uggla, Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Bay, Sosa, and DeJesus, Konerko were the 11 team leaders left off the original All-Star rosters.
Swisher has the lowest percentage of any team leader. He has an .847 OPS, with just 10 homers, 44 RBIs and 34 runs.
Arizona’s All-Star representatives are Orlando Hudson and Jose Valvarde. Hudson’s HOR% is 12.10, substantially shy of Byrnes’ 13.83. Byrnes beats Hudson in nearly every major statistical category and is a victim of a crowded outfield. Byrnes has had much more of an impact on the surprising Diamondbacks than a an All-Star such as Aaron Rowand who has similar numbers but only a 10.90%.
Barry Bonds’ HOR% is 12.24, just a little shy of Durham’s 12.39. Durham’s OPS is .725 compared to Bonds’ 1.119. Durham hasn’t created a ton of scoring opportunities, but he has taken advantage of the ones he has had.
Uggla has the good fortune of batting between Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera and his .324 OBP cancel out his 17 home runs and 50 RBIs.
Dmitri Young’s .340 average and adequate 12.46% outweighed Zimmerman’s superior HOR production and paltry .245 average.
Bay’s 2007 season is far inferior to his 2006 when he was the hometown hero when the game was played in Pittsburgh. He has a .784 OPS, .262 AVG and 50 RBIs, compared to Sanchez’s .706 OPS and .301 AVG. Similar to the situation in Arizona, Sanchez will represent the Pirates because of the positional impact. Pitchers Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny both deserved to be on the team more than either hitter.
Michael Young is the Rangers’ lone representative and it is hard to see why he will be in San Francisco and not Sosa. Young has an 11.15%, which isn’t much worse than Sosa’s 11.63%, but he is having a sub-par season by all accounts. Of course Young is the third shortstop on the team, but a player such as Orlando Cabrera is having a vastly superior season and Sosa could replace Manny Ramirez, who is also a perennial All-Star in the midst of an average season.
David DeJesus isn’t an All-Star by any standard except to be Kansas City’s representative and Gil Meche (3.28 ERA) is the clear choice.
Finally there is Konerko from the light-hitting White Sox. Bobby Jenks is the only representative and it is impossible to argue with the selection.
Comments and questions can be sent to Christopher.Reina@RealGM.com
