The Royals have been major players in the free agent market, making a big run at Andruw Jones while signing Jose Guillen, but they did lose David Riske to the Brewers.
RealGM Search
2008 Record: 86-76
2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
FIC Rank: 12th
4th in AL East
2008 Payroll: $97.79 million, 7th in AL, 13th in MLB
Cost per win: $1.137 million, 8th in AL. 18th in MLB
Blue Jays Season Review
Toronto was always supposed to be the team to break up the Yankee/Red Sox monopoly over the AL East, but it was the Rays that unexpectedly busted up the division.
Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are both very fine hitters, but as middle of the lineup anchors they are well below average, and the Jays' offense couldn't score enough runs to help the MLB's best pitching staff.
With the kind of pitching they had from top to bottom in 2008, the Jays win most divisions in baseball, but with far too many OBP below .350 and slugging percentages under .420 and no Evan Longoria to call up and rely upon, the feat was too difficult for them to accomplish in 2008.
The Jays need to upgrade their offense by any means necessary, but a reliable left handed hitter, preferably with power, is their most pressing need.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Rod Barajas (531st, 53, -36%) became the starter after Zaun when down with an injury in May, and he hit an out of his head .370/.424/.630. The Jays project Barajas as their main catcher in 2009, but it is hard to figure out why they wouldn't be more aggressive at the position with all of the free agents that will be available. Barajas had an OPS of .457 in July and .369 in September, but he calls a solid game, and the Jays were 56-38 in his starts.
Gregg Zaun (567th, 48, -89%) did not have his finest season on record in 2008, fighting injuries and inconsistency. He did manage to finish the season strong, hitting .310/.396/.452 in September. He is a free agent and is far from certain to be back although my money says he'd eventually beat out Barajas.
First Base
Lyle Overbay (307th, 96, -94%) had a bounce back season of sorts, raising his OPS 71 points, but it still was 103 points off his .880 during his first year with in Toronto. The Jays let Overbay see way too much right handed pitching as his splits were .865/.540, and even though $6.75M is a modest sum to pay a first baseman, he was overvalued. The man who replaced Overbay in Milwaukee has him beat by 102 points in OPS since 2005.
The Jays were 26th in first base OPS, ahead of only Kansas City, San Francisco, Oakland, and Seattle.
Second Base
Joe Inglett (348th, 88, +365%) got his first shot to play, and he responded by hitting .297/.355/.407 in 109 games. He is clearly a gap to gap hitter, and his 15 doubles and seven triples in just 344 at bats were impressive.
Aaron Hill (717th, 27, -4%) only played in 55 games after he wasn't able to recover from a head injury he suffered when he collided with David Eckstein in May. At the time of his injury, his OPS had dipped from the .792 of 2007 to .685. He still hasn't managed to become a better hitter against righties.
Third Base
Scott Rolen (321st, 94, -82%) saw his OBP and SLG increase in his first season in Toronto, but he still managed just 11 homers and is a long way away from his 2006 season (.887), let alone 2004 (1.007), and the 3B he was traded for (Troy Glaus) hit 27 homers. Rolen looked like his career was just about over in July when he hit .163/.277/.200, but he switched up some mechanics and finished the season strong, hitting for an OPS over .914 over his final 22 games. Rolen was also every bit as good defensively as he's always been.
Shortstop
Marco Scutaro (215th, 129, +181%) could have been listed under almost any of these positions, but since he started more games (53) at shortstop than second (39), third (36), left (3), first (2), or DH (1), that seemed logical. He had a typical Scutaro season although he didn't quite live up to the clutch billing he had developed while in Oakland.
David Eckstein (512th, 57, -89%) hit for an OPS of .712 with the Jays before they dealt him to Arizona for Chad Beck.
John McDonald (956th, 7, -79%) hit for an OPS of .524, which paired with a .960 fielding percentage made 2008 an individual nightmare.
Left Field
Adam Lind (477th, 62, +92%) is still young, but he's not your uncle's Joe Carter. He's still not hitting lefties very well, and after an initial hot streak when he hit really well in June and July, he declined later in the season.
Shannon Stewart (778th, 21, -74%) came back to the Jays after three full seasons in Minnesota and a brief detour in Oakland but hit just one homer in 175 at bats.
Center Field
Vernon Wells (160th, 154, +47%) was significantly better in 2008 (.300/.343/.496) than in 2007 (.245/.304/.402), but he really didn't going until the second half. Ever since his breakout 2003 season when he looked like a genuine top shelf superstar, he's hit for an OPS of .806 from 2004 to 2008, which puts him 10th among center fielders. He is still a very good ballplayer, but over the past two seasons he hasn't been the kind of player at the plate or in the field that the Jays have been counting on.
Right Field
Alex Rios (168th, 150, 21%) followed up an .852 OPS with a drop to .798. His homer total dropped from 24 to just 15 while he struck out more and walked less. He dominated lefties to the tune of a 1.022 OPS in 2007, but he completely lost his touch and hit just .735 against them this season. Rios had a much better second half and ended the season on an up note, but he must hit lefties better again in 2009 and must also be more productive with two outs and runners in scoring position.
Brad Wilkerson (1010th, 4, -87%) lasted just 19 games in Seattle before they decided they had enough, but he found a home with Toronto and he gave them 85 at bats of .629 OPS baseball. He looked like he was going to be an extremely competent outfielder when he was hitting in the 800's during the final days of the Expos but now appears done.
Designated Hitter
Frank Thomas (668th, 35, -97%) got out of Toronto after 16 games and a .639 OPS, leaving the Jays without a legitimate DH in a division filled with quality ones. If they were serious about competing, I'm not sure why Barry Bonds couldn't have fit into their picture.
Matt Stairs (533rd, 53, -73%) hit 11 homers for the Jays before they traded him to Philadelphia on August 31st.
Starting Pitching
Roy Halladay (4th, 306, +89%) made 30+ starts for the third straight season and had an excellent 2.78 ERA with nine complete games. For the third consecutive season, Halladay will be in the top-five of Cy Young voting. All of his splits (lefty/righty, home/away, 1st half/2nd half) were remarkably similar in 2008.
A.J. Burnett (20th, 257, +17%) made 34 starts for the Jays, which was a career high for the oft-injured pitcher. He struggled at home (4.49 ERA) and in the first half (4.96) but had a 3.65 ERA on the road and 2.86 ERA in the second half. He will attempt to parlay that finish with a big extension, but it is difficult to find a team that will rest easy paying Burnett $15M+ per season. He 'deserved' to make $15.5M, but the 18 wins and 231 strikeouts were more impressive than the 4.07 ERA and 1.342 WHIP.
Jesse Litsch (101st, 190, +2,048%) didn't strikeout batters in the style of Burnett, Halladay, or even Shaun Marcum but kept the walks and hits down and had a 3.58 ERA over 176.0 innings. Litsch is one of just 19 pitchers since 1990 to have an ERA of 3.70 or better over his first two MLB seasons. Litsch extended out his arm and improved as the season went deeper, throwing a 1.37 ERA in August and 2.18 in September.
Shaun Marcum (147th, 161, +1,473%) once again improved significantly, lowering his ERA from 4.13 to 3.39. He struggled in the second half but finished off the season with three strong starts. While his K/BB rate was virtually identical to 2007, his proclivity for giving up the long ball decreased.
Dustin McGowan (283rd, 104, +642%) was the high ERA man of the Jays' staff, but his 4.37 mark was just barely above the league average. His season ended early with surgery to his rotator cuff and will be a question mark in 2009. Regardless, he needs to pitch better on the road (6.17 ERA) and against lefties (.854 OPS against).
David Purcey (526th, 54, +15%) was a spot starter and eventually settled in for McGowan. He had a 5.54 ERA and 1.477 WHIP but struck out 58 batters in 65 innings.
Relief Pitching
B.J. Ryan (151st, 158, -48%) had a healthy and productive 2008 after throwing just 4.3 innings in 2007. He had a 2.95 ERA, which obviously couldn't touch his 1.37 during his first season in Toronto, but with one-to-one strikeout/inning rate and 32 saves (4 blown), Ryan had a bounce back season.
Scott Downs (366th, 81, -31%) had a 1.78 ERA and 24 holds for the Jays while striking out 7.26 batters per nine innings.
Jesse Carlson (311th, 96, +477%) had a higher ERA (2.25) than Downs and fewer holds (19) but a better strikeout rate.
Brian Tallet (523rd, 55, -29%) was another quality lefty in Cito Gaston's bullpen. He had a 2.88 ERA in 56.3 innings and finished 2008 very strong.
Jason Frasor (614th, 42, -64%) was one of the lone righties to come out of the bullpen, and he couldn't find the same level of comfort on the road (6.85 ERA) as at home (1.80). He struggled against lefties, yielding an .842 OPS.
Jeremy Accardo (874th, 13, -1%) saved 30 games for the Jays in 2007 in replacement of B.J. Ryan but was limited to just 12.3 innings this season due to a serious right forearm problem.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM
