| Chris Hoyler. 12th August, 2005 - 11:48 pm
 National baseball columnists have taken to making jokes about the standings of the National League’s Western Division. At this point it has become passé, along with stories about Rafael Palmeiro’s Hall of Fame credentials and Barry Bonds’ daily rehabilitation/website updates. Anyone can pick up a newspaper and see that the Padres, struggling to stay at and above .500, are the division leader. Hearing people like Dick Vitale (Yes, Dickie V, renowned baseball analyst) on a national radio show talking about the possibility of eliminating a division leader from the playoffs if they do not meet a minimum win total (In this case, 81 wins and a .500 record) is ridiculous enough. But, to hear supposed experts agreeing with Vitale and expounding on this subject as suitable conversation is enough. The San Diego Padres are going to win the National League West. The San Diego Padres will meet the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Division Series and, because of baseball’s most unappreciated player, take St. Louis to the brink of elimination and with a little health and help, over the edge.
Meet Jake Peavy. He’s hoping that his buddy Adam Eaton is at full strength, taking his start every fifth day by the end of this month. He’s hoping that out of the rest of the rotation, Chan Ho Park or Woody Williams or Brian Lawrence or Pedro Astacio, one can provide five or six solid innings for one game, likely in spacious Petco Park. Peavy can start twice in a five game series. He can start Game 1 in St. Louis; in front of 50,345 Cardinal Red clad maniacs, impervious to the situation, the history, the expectations. That it would be the first playoff game played in Busch Stadium since Keith Foulke retired Edgar Renteria and completed an embarrassing World Series sweep means nothing. Peavy would handle the mashers of the Cardinal order, Pujols and Edmonds and if he is healthy, Rolen, with the ease that he did in a July 27th 2-1 victory.
Following a victory in the first game, the Padres hold all the Cards (bad pun intended) for the remainder of the series. Based on the calendar dates of last years NLDS, they would not be forced to throw Peavy on three days rest in a potential Game Three or Four. They can throw Brian Lawrence, the best of their road starters, without worry in Game Two, hoping for that one good start, that elusive quality start to bridge to the dominating bullpen trio of Linebrink, Otsuka and Hoffman. Throw in some unexpectedly impressive work from Rudy Seanez, and it might just take five good innings from Lawrence to have a real shot at stealing two in Busch. It is not impossible; Lawrence went 6 2/3, allowing just three runs in a May 5 Padre win at St. Louis. Adam Eaton, unbeaten (6-0) with a 2.35 ERA at Petco, can then take the mound in Game Three when the series flips venues. Regardless of the Game Two outcome, Peavy’s start makes the Padres the favorite or, at worst, a very live underdog in Game One. Just one win at Busch would put San Diego in the driver’s seat, with two dominant home starters in Eaton and Peavy available for two home games.
On the other hand, there is a supposed issue regarding the offense. You know, the one that is averaging 4.39 runs a game (as of 8/9), good for 23rd in the majors? The one with the 6th worst slugging percentage in the majors? I know that I was not the only one who wondered how they could afford to trade Phil Nevin, even in his “reduced” condition, statistically and physically. After taking a deeper look at the numbers, it becomes clear that this is a facet of the team built to succeed in the playoffs, not unlike the makeup of the pitching staff. Despite Brian Giles’s complaints about the home park and its death grip on the offense, the Pads are the NL’s highest scoring road team, averaging 4.95 runs per game. While they may not score at home, the dimensions of Petco have not hurt the psychological dimension of the Padres offensive approach. I’m not Freud, but the argument that it actually helps their hitting on the road is not unsubstantiated. Hitting in such a large park may make them more cognizant of the cozier parks around the National League.
Do not take this the wrong way; by no means am I appointing the Padres the favorite in the National League. That said, the jokes about the weakness of the division have grown old, and while I don’t expect them to stop anytime soon, they are still unfounded and ignorant. The Padres are a real threat should they make the playoffs, with anyone expecting a St. Louis cakewalk due for a big surprise. Just ask Jake Peavy, the best starting pitcher the nation has never heard of. All he’s looking for is a little help. |
