| Chris Hoyler. 9th September, 2005 - 6:56 pm
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Shingo Takatsu was a new face; a Wild Card in a race for that very berth, the berth that will engulf September for the National League East. 37,336 spectators, whose rooting interests could best be described as “mixed”, collectively stood in an anticipation of the 2-1, 2 out offering to Miguel Cabrera.
Mets fans may have thought they had a chance. After all, Takatsu was facing his first batter as a member of the Senior Circuit. Maybe the Marlins had no idea how the Frisbee flinging righty would attack their star left fielder, despite pitching bad enough to be designated for assignment by the White Sox in August. He ain’t that great, they thought, just look at Cabrera’s numbers with the bases loaded this season (12 PA, .273 AVG, 0 HR, 9 RBI, .364 SLG). They’re terrible. Yeah, you got him Shingo, and just in case you don’t, you got a 2 run lead.
Marlins fans, they didn’t even have to watch. Cabrera had been picking up 24 other guys all season, so how hard would it be to pick up the 3 that occupied the bases?
Takatsu came set; delivering the same flat, middle-out 89 MPH fastball that led to his banishment to the National League in the first place and flung his head back over his right shoulder.
Cliff Floyd, the bionic left fielder who opened the scoring in the fourth with a two run home run off Josh Beckett, left his feet unsuccessfully as Cabrera’s rocket caromed off the left field wall. Floyd’s lack of balance combined with the rolling ball allowed all three base runners to score without incident, the Marlins contingent in the crowd exploding as Cabrera pointed towards the dugout from second.
“You have to be excited because that run gave us the win. One game for us is everything. We’ve got to play every inning,” Cabrera said after the Marlins 5-4 win Saturday evening.
It is Cabrera, his mentality, his game approach, his youth, that is the heart of the Marlins;
Those qualities, whether you consider them tangible or intangible, are the qualities of the National League’s Most Valuable Player.
Put yourself in the shoes of a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Now, after you have completed ranting about why Albert Pujols or Derrek Lee are more deserving of the honor this season, take an objective look at why the voting will come down to the September performances of three NL East stars.
The debate over the “real meaning” of the MVP term is passé; to tag that “dead horse” phrase to it would be kind.
The underlying truth to the matter lies in recent voting. In the last few seasons, players like Vladimir Guerrero (2004) and Miguel Tejada (2002) have won their awards based on their sprints to the finish. Who does not remember Tejada hitting the extra inning home run to extend the 2002 Oakland A’s winning streak to 20 games? How could anyone forget Guerrero’s final weekend destruction of the A’s last season?
Jayson Stark compiled the following statistics in a recent ESPN article, showing further that it takes a once in a lifetime season (Not unlike Bonds’ 2003) to win the award in the situations that Pujols (Team won division on April 15) and Lee (Team fell apart and has no playoff chance) find themselves in.
Since 1998, MVP winners fall under the following criteria:
• Just three of 14 came from teams that won their division by 10 games or more.
• Ten of the 14 played for teams that finished first or won the wild card -- six of those 10 clinching in the final week.
• Three more came from teams that weren't eliminated until the final weekend.
(Credit: Jayson Stark, ESPN)
In baseball, first impressions mean nothing. To say that voters believe in the “What have you done for me lately” line of thinking would be an understatement. That is why it comes down to David Wright, Andruw Jones and Cabrera.
David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
-What The Numbers Say: Wright has been the National League’s best hitter since the All Star Break. In a New York lineup full of high priced disappointments (Carlos Beltran and Mike Piazza) and young free swingers (Jose Reyes and Victor Diaz), Wright has been the antithesis. Since the break, he is .370/.438/.614, nearly matching his first half HR and RBI total as of Wednesday night (11 and 44 in the first, 10 and 43 since the break). He’s been better on the road than at home, a key for any hitter before they can be considered great, and is just as good a hitter against righties as he is lefties.
-His “MVP Moment”: On 8/9, at San Diego, Wright made the defensive play of the year, making an over-the-shoulder, bare handed catch of a Brian Giles blooper that threatened to fall in short left field. That was when the media began to notice how strong Wright’s offensive numbers have been, especially in comparison to his faltering Mets teammates.
-Why He Won’t Win: The Mets have fell off the face of the Wild Card planet after doing their usual tank job this week at Turner Field. Sitting at 5 games out with 4 teams to jump over is going to be next to impossible, and no playoff berth means nothing more than Top 10 consideration for Wright.
-What He Needs To Win: The Mets, if able to overcome this deficit and make the playoffs, will have shocked the entire baseball world. It is difficult to imagine them even threatening without Wright leading the charge, so this far fetched scenario would definitely stand to put Wright in position.
-Where He Finishes In The Voting: No lower than 8th, no higher than 5th.
Andruw Jones, CF, Atlanta Braves
What The Numbers Say: Jones is the best power hitter in baseball. He leads the majors in HRs (45) and the NL in RBIs (114). In “Close and Late” situations, which are defined as “appearances in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck,” Jones is hitting .295 with 9 HRs and 17 RBIs. But, for all his good looking “clutch” stats, Jones has done a great deal of his damage without runners on base. He is hitting a paltry .218 with runners in scoring position, and that is in a very large number of appearances (194). His home/away and righty/lefty splits are very similar, so he is showing consistency, for better or worse.
-His “MVP Moment”: There have been plenty, but his game winning solo HR last Thursday against Washington stands out. Washington had ravaged the Braves bullpen for 4 runs in the 7th to tie, and an Atlanta loss that night would have reduced their lead in the division to 4 over Philly. The “MVP! MVP!” chants showered Jones as he rounded the bases, and the highlight led off Sports Center that evening, something that can not be understated in that some voters don’t watch many out of market games live.
-Why He Won’t Win: The numbers, deep down, are not as great as they seem. While Andruw has had some big moments, many question his lost speed and ability to make the routine plays that once made him so great, labeling him a “flash-first fielder”. If the Braves end up running away with the division, it could actually hurt Jones, who won’t receive the same spotlight as the Wild Card contenders come late this month. In comparison to what a replacement-level player would bring to the Braves (A fantastic stat called Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP, was created for this by Baseball Prospectus), Jones does not value very high, meaning that his presence is not the be-all end-all of the offense like Derrek Lee is to Chicago or Jason Bay is to Pittsburgh.
-What He Needs To Win: More than 50 HRs. That is the magic number that the steroid-doubters are pointing too, and if Andruw can break it, he’ll lead the league’s most visible offensive category by a good margin. If he can win the division clinching game with another walk-off HR or something of that nature, he’ll be the favorite. Remember Stark’s statistics: The biggest showman gets the most consideration, and the best time to be a showman is during a Pennant Race.
-Where He Finishes In The Voting: No lower than 3rd, possible winner.
Miguel Cabrera, LF/3B, Florida Marlins
What The Numbers Say: Cabrera carries Florida more than Pujols carries St. Louis or Wright carries New York or Jones carries Atlanta or any player carries any team. Well, actually, Cabrera’s VORP is 3rd in the NL, a fair distance behind Pujols and Lee. But, remember, this is meant to look at the MVP voting through the eyes of a BBWA voter, who does not watch all the games and may not look at the statistics outside of .AVG/HR/RBI/SB/Runs. Cabrera has that nice stat which says only he and Carlos Delgado hit HRs for the Marlins for nearly the entire month of August. He also is the best road hitter in the National League (.356 AVG/19 HR/60 RBI), destroying lefties and righties without partiality. Cabrera has struggled in close and late situations, though he is very strong with runners in scoring position, meaning those two areas cancel each other out in a head to head comparison with Jones.
-His “MVP Moment”: Re-read the beginning of this article, please. If you want to see it, check out the Marlins’ “Top Plays Archive” at their official website.
-Why He Won’t Win: Lee and Pujols are going to get the votes of the real, hardcore statistical analysts, who look at that VORP and define that as value. I can not argue that point, Lee is clearly the entire offense for the Cubs. Pujols is a little different because of his club’s total dominance, but he is still, in Reggie Jackson’s famous words, “the straw that stirs the drink” for the Cardinal offense. Cabrera does not play in a high visibility baseball market like Wright, Pujols and Jones (TBS, not Atlanta, makes the Braves high visibility). If the Marlins do not make the playoffs, Cabrera will not win. Pretty simple.
-What He Needs To Win: Same as Wright. If the Marlins make the playoffs, it will be fair to assume that Cabrera and Delgado carried the offense along the way. That will create plenty of chances to make “moments” and improve statistics. Cabrera wins the award if the Marlins win the Wild Card.
-Where He Finishes In The Voting: Winner |
