| Mark Kelley. 20th February, 2006 - 6:14 am
 What’s the price of remaking a rotation, one which had had marginal success since 2000 but failed to become one of the elite? Well, in the mind of Mets General Manager Omar Minaya, the number is a cool fifty-three million, the amount doled out last off-season to starting pitcher Pedro Martinez to become the team’s new ace. Critics argued that Martinez, coming off his worst season in years (where he put up a 3.90 ERA, being supplanted as Boston’s ace by Playoff hero Curt Schilling) was a prime candidate to break down, making the price tag ridiculous. It was far from a prudent deal (paying top dollar for an aging star with shoulder problems), but in true Omar style, it didn’t phase him. Minaya signed Pedro in the hope that he would receive an elite starting pitcher as well as an immediate icon in New York. Pedro failed on neither account (perhaps most exemplified in a June home start against Houston, where Pedro twirled a gem to chants of “Pedro! Pedro!” throughout).
Pedro’s value to last year’s team can hardly be quantified by numbers and figures, yet his impact was nearly matched by veteran Tom Glavine. No, Glavine did not have the effect Pedro had in terms of pure numbers. But, Glavine was expected to provide relatively little to an already-deep rotation. His role was far from excruciating: take the ball every fifth day, and try not to inflict too much damage on the Mets’ chances. Glavine started the season as expected with a decent start here and there, but primarily mediocre. After adding a curve ball to his established repertoire and adapting to attack the inside half of the plate more often, Glavine became a whole new pitcher in the second half, posting a 2.22 ERA after the All Star break which was capped off by a complete game shut out to end his season.
Martinez and Glavine were followed in the rotation by an extremely solid group consisting of Jae Seo (who, it should be noted, was much more than solid, even spectacular at times), Kris Benson, Victor “Scott Kazmir” Zambrano and, to some extent, Aaron Heilman (early in the year) and Steve Trachsel (August and September). At the end of the season, the entire staff combined with the bullpen to give up a solid 648 runs.
In preparing for the 2006 season, Minaya recognized a surplus of somewhat decent starting pitchers behind Pedro (Glavine, Trachsel, Heilman, Zambrano, Benson, Seo, Bannister), and decided to deal from a strength to improve the weak bullpen. A decent idea on the surface, but Omar went overboard. Frankly, had neither the Kris Benson deal (to Baltimore for reliever Jorge Julio and prospect John Maine) nor the Jae Seo deal (to Los Angeles, along with reliever Tim Hamulack, for pitchers Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll) occurred, nobody would have been especially upset. Yes, the Mets were said to have depth behind their expected starting rotation of Martinez/Glavine/Benson/Trachsel/Seo, but the quality of that depth was questionable at best. Dealing away a starting pitcher is never a great idea, not when taking into account the difference in value between starters and relievers. Jae Seo was one of the more productive players on the team last season, regardless of position, and dealing him for an average reliever (who was aided heavily by Dodger Stadium) seemed to be a bit of a reach. At the time I remember thinking that the loss wouldn’t be huge; Zambrano could step into the rotation, and Sanchez could become a valuable middle reliever. But, when Minaya dealt Benson for Julio (who still seems to be living off one fluke year he had, similar to Paul Lo Duca), my faith in the rotation crumbled. I never loved Kris Benson. He was paid like a number two pitcher, but was nothing more (or less) than solid. In dealing him, the Mets would have to put Aaron Heilman in the rotation (weakening the bullpen), and simply pray that injuries would not occur. With the ages of the top three in this rotation, can a completely healthy year be expected by any of them? Really, with this type of rotation, shouldn’t depth be coveted, not dealt away for average relief pitchers? Regardless, when healthy the staff still projects to be above average. Lets take a look at the key contributors, and those expected to fill in once (not if) and injury occurs.
- Pedro Martinez, Age 34, Bats Right, Throws Right
2005 Pitching Stats: 15-8, 2.82 ERA, .95 WHIP
What is the most important issue opposing a successful 2006 season for the New York Mets? It’s not Jose Reyes’s OBP, Billy Wagner’s left arm, Carlos Delgado’s adjusting to New York, or a bounce back year for Carlos Beltran. It’s Pedro’s toe, something that ailed him last season enough for him to scrap his last two starts of the year, going into the off-season a bit earlier. Nike has developed a customized shoe for Pedro, which is a bit larger (one size) than the ordinary cleat he wears, designed to put less stress on Pedro’s toe through the placement of the spikes and the design of the heel. If healthy, he is still one of the top pitchers in the National League. There were times last year where he would dial up and hit 93-94 on the gun, but those outings were far less common than ones where he would simply throw in the low 80s, screwing his opposition into the ground with an assortment of breaking pitchers. I suspect that he has at least one season left in him worth his current contract, maybe in the sub-three ERA range. With the improved offense, thirty starts should allow him to easily notch 18 or so wins.
- Tom Glavine, Age 40, Bats Left, Throws Left
2005 Pitching Stats: 13-13, 3.53 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
After a terrible first season in New York, Glavine has quietly assembled back-to-back seasons in line with his career numbers, at least in the ERA and WHIP departments. His W/L record has been skewed by the Mets anemic offense at times, but regardless he has been a fairly productive pitcher over his three full seasons with the Mets. What has hurt his reputation with the team is the fact that his two above average seasons with New York – 2004 and 2005 – happened due to a great half, either the first (2004, where he was an All Star) or the second (2005, where he compiled a 2.22 ERA after the break). This is where the optimism for Glavine comes in for the season. After adding a curve ball to his typical fastball-changeup combo and finally pitching inside a bit more, he was extremely effective over his last fifteen starts. With that said, he is a question mark coming into this season due to his age, as well those great results in the second half of last season. It has to be wondered how much of his success was due to hitters failing to adjust to Glavine’s new way of attacking them. Until April goes by (and Tom can get a good five starts under his belt), it is tough to truly judge him.
- Steve Trachsel, Age 35, Bats Right, Throws Right
For all of the positive press this current Mets team has gotten regarding the upcoming season, having Steve Trachsel slated in as the team’s number three starter (after missing the majority of 2005 with a back injury) is cause for concern. No, I don’t have a problem giving Trachsel the ball every fifth day. But, he is best suited as a back end of the rotation type of player, not one which is, in some respects, supposed to help carry the rotation. He defines solid: a career ERA+ above 100, with decent ERA and WHIP numbers. But, at this point in his career, he has health and age questions, and really is more of a number four starter. If an injury occurs to someone in the rotation, it would only get worse.
- Aaron Heilman, Age 27, Bats Right, Throws Right
2005 Pitching Stats: 5-3 (7 games started), 3.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
I can’t say it anymore bluntly than this: Aaron Heilman should be in the bullpen. I realize that he wanted a shot in the rotation following his successful 2005 season. But, why was he so successful? Really, it was his work in the ‘pen, not the rotation, that had the team buzzing about him at the end of the year. Sure, he had his moments (obviously his one-hitter against the Marlins tops it off), but he constantly found himself getting hit hard the second time through an order in the limited amount of starts he actually had. Plus, he had durability problems in that he often tired early in the game. His repertoire is an asset in the bullpen because it is conducive to getting left handed batters out (as well as, obviously, right handers). I suspect that he’ll have his chance in the rotation, only to find himself back in the 8th inning by mid-season.
- Victor Zambrano, Age 30, Bats Right, Throws Right
2005 Pitching Stats: 7-12, 4.17 ERA, 1.49 WHIP
He’s wild, he’s tough to watch, and he was dealt for Scott Kazmir. Regardless, he takes a bit too much criticism. No, he is not a frontline starter. But, he is perfectly capable of providing solid innings as a four or five starter, which is what he is even on this depleted staff. Though he’ll always be compared to who he isn’t, he is still a decent pitcher, and not nearly the black hole some seem to think he is.
With the expected injuries, two others could potentially see decent time as fill in starters throughout the year:
- Brian Bannister, Age 25, Bats Right, Throws Right
- John Maine, Age 25, Bats Right, Throws Right
Bannister has become a typical over-hyped New York prospect, due mainly to his overall great statistical season at class AA Binghamton last season (9-4 record, 2.56 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). But, he is predicted to be more of a 4/5 starter on a good major league staff due to having no true out pitch. His best pitch is his cut fastball, though he also has a changeup, four seam fastball, curve ball and a slider. With that said, his AAA performance from last season shows that he is fairly close to becoming reliable fill-in starter, and I wouldn’t worry if he had to take the ball a few times this season.
Maine is a bit more of a question mark for me as he has been in the Orioles organization his entire career, only coming over to the Mets in the deal that sent Kris Benson to Baltimore. From all reports, Maine is just like Bannister: a potential back of the rotation starter, and little more. There was a time when he was expected to be a future ace, but that was based more off of his great performances in the lower levels of the minor leagues than anything else. He has decent size along with a good fastball and slider. Aside from that, he is nothing special.
What had been a strength, at least depth-wise, has gradually become a weakness as the off season has rumbled along. With pitchers and catchers reporting last Thursday, the Mets must realize that a simple stone thrown at the foundation of the rotation will cause the entire thing to crumble. It’s not a very good sign when the staff does not look especially good on paper in February. Even so, any rotation with a few quality arms following a legitimate ace always has the potential to perform. Check back in the next couple of days, where we will be previewing the right field battle between Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz. |
