| Jonathan Rosenbluth. 13th April, 2007 - 6:01 pm
 The MLB season is underway! The American League East, which used to be a two horse race at best, seems to be up for grabs. As the first week and a half demonstrates, the perennial favorite Yankees appear to be lacking in pitching. The Red Sox, whose pitching rotation seems to be heavily improved with the addition of Daisuke Matsuzaka and a healthy Curt Schilling, might not be as good as one would think. Once you get past Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, the Red Sox lineup is no where near as strong as that of the Yankees or Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are the dark horse to win the division if some things to go their way.
The following assesses and ranks these three teams, starting with pitching.
Pitching Staff
1) Toronto Blue Jays
2) Boston Red Sox
3) New York Yankees
The Blue Jays have the best pitcher in the AL East in Roy Halladay, a four time all-star and a one time Cy Young Award Winner. AJ Burnett, is coming off a season where he was hampered with injuries. When he was healthy at the end of the season, he finished strong going 7-3. If he can play like he did at the end of the season, the Jays will have gotten their moneys worth. Chacin’s goals for this season should be to keep both his blood alcohol level and his ERA within respectable limits. Chacin has the potential to be a very solid 3rd starter, but as to whether or not he will reach that potential is yet to be determined. The bottom of the rotation is stronger than one would think. While there are questions about Ohka and Towers there are many potential starters sitting in the bullpen (John Thomson, Casey Janssen, Scott Downs, and Shaun Marcum) who could take their place should either fail.
Many people would disagree and put the Red Sox #1, especially because, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Josh Beckett look on the money so far. Daisuke Matsuzaka nicknamed Dice-K, or Kaibutsu (The Monster), is technically considered a rookie but his seven years spent pitching in Japan prove him to be more of a seasoned veteran. He was the best pitcher in Japan and baseball players in Japan born in 1980, his birth year, are called ‘the Matsuzaka Generation’. Dice-K has started the season well. There is always an advantage for a rookie pitcher (even a veteran rookie like Dice-K) over batters who have not seen much of him before. Will Dice-K turn out to be the dominant force for whom Boston paid so dearly? I, for one, do not think so. Matsuzaka pitches differently than regular North American pitchers. For example, rather than set up his off-speed stuff with his fastball, Matsuzaka does the opposite. This will give him some short term success but eventually, like many rookie pitchers (cross reference Chris Machalik, 2001 Blue Jays), hitters will get to know him and eventually start hitting him. Dice-K will likely be good but not nearly as amazing as expected. Boston has already fallen in love with Matsuzaka, but it unclear how long that love will last. Dice-K should prove to be one of the most intriguing stories in baseball this year.
Beckett, historically, has been a strong pitcher in April. In his career, he has had more strikeouts and his best WHIP in the month of April, than is any other month in the season. Just because he looks great out of the gate does not mean he is improved from last season. Curt Schilling is clearly in the twilight of his career. Last season he posted his highest ERA since 1994 (in at least 100 innings pitched); not a good sign for an aging pitcher. Does he have another good season left in him? Not everyone has as many lives as Roger Clemens.
The Yankees have a very suspect rotation. Other than Chien Ming-Wang, who is starting the season on the disabled list, their rotation is filled with either older pitchers (Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte) or fragile ones (Carl Pavano). This year more than ever the Yankees will rely on their fierce batting line up.
Bullpen
1) Toronto Blue Jays
2) New York Yankees
3) Boston Red Sox
The Jays have tremendous depth in their bullpen, even without their set-up man to be, Brandon League. The Jays middle relief is very strong, which could be crucial should the Jays starting rotation face injury problems. BJ Ryan was the last closer in the AL East to blow a save last year. He has already blown one this year but is still viewed as being reliable to close.
The Yankees have the best closer (arguably) of all time. Rivera is the rock of this bullpen. The Yankees middle relief is very solid, with Ryan Farnsworth and Scott Proctor. But because of inconsistency with their starters, the bullpen could be used much earlier in games than manager Joe Torre would like. This could, in turn, be the downfall of the Yankees.
Many recognize Papelbon as the game’s next great closer, and he seems to be on his way there, but once you get past Papelbon the Red Sox do not have much left in their bullpen. Timlin is not getting any younger (41 years old) and last year he had a 7.11 ERA against the Yankees, and as Blue Jay fans learned the hard way you do not want to count on him when a game is on the line.
Catcher
1) Jorge Posada (New York)
2) Jason Varitek (Boston)
3) Gregg Zaun (Toronto)
Jorge is by far the best hitter of the bunch (.277 batting avg. and 23 homeruns last season). Varitek, the captain of the Red Sox, can no longer hit for average, (.238 batting average last season) or for power (12 homeruns last season). After the Jays failed to sign Rod Barajas, they resigned Zaun, who is an adequate hitter (.272 batting average in 290 at bats last season). However, his arm from behind the plate is seriously wanting. This off-season the Blue Jays’ best acquisition of a catcher was Alan Ashby, who will be manning the broadcast booth this season.
Designated Hitter
1) David Ortiz (Boston)
2) Frank Thomas (Toronto)
3) Jason Giambi (New York)
All three players are very talented but David Ortiz is clearly the best. Along with Manny Ramirez they carry Boston’s offense on their backs. Last season, Ortiz hit .287 with 54 home runs, 137 RBIs and 115 runs. Thomas, coming back from injury, also had an incredible year, hitting .270 with 39 homeruns and 114 RBIs. If Thomas can stay healthy and produce like he did for the A’s last season, he could be the difference in an already potent offense. Giambi, while belting 37 home runs and 113 RBIs only hit .253, despite a OBP of .413.
First Base
1) Lyle Overbay (Toronto)
2) Kevin Youkilis (Boston)
3) Doug Mientkiewicz (New York)
In comparing the three, Overbay is the best fielder and hitter. While he lowered his doubles total last season, he upped his homerun total. Youkilis is also a big doubles hitter and hits for average. Mientkiewicz played in only 91 games last season, but played well. He will be hitting from the bottom of the Yankee’s line up and should be successful, but not as successful as Overbay or Youkilis.
Second Base
1) Robinson Cano (New York)
2) Aaron Hill (Toronto)
3) Dustin Pedroia (Boston)
Cano is without question the best of the second baseman. In only his second full season as a big leaguer, Cano had a .342 batting average, yet he is hitting at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. Aaron Hill is one of the premier defensive players in the game. After starting last season hitting .195, Hill was able to up his average to .291 by the end of the year. Hill performed his best against division rival Boston Red Sox as he had more hits, RBI and doubles than he did against any other team. This is set to be Pedroia’s first full major league season. Expectations are high for Pedroia, although no one knows how much he will contribute to the Red Sox.
Third Base
1) Alex Rodriguez (New York)
2) Troy Glaus (Toronto)
3) Mike Lowell (Boston)
There is no question that A-Rod is the most skilled of the group. The question, as always, is how will he handle playing in New York this year. A-Rod is one of the most talented ball players in the game, but his inability to play well in the clutch and in the post season had Yankee fans booing. This season looks entirely different. Alex Rodriguez has started the season on a tear as he hit a walk off grand slam. If he keeps hitting the way he is, he will definitely “earn his pinstripes”. My prediction is that he will do more than just “earn his pinstripes” but will have one of the best years of any players to date. If the Yankees make the post season, I predict his success carrying over.
Troy Glaus is your stereotypical power hitter: he hits lots of home runs (38 last season) but hits for a poor average (.252 last season) and strikes out way too much (134 last season). Troy added much needed nastiness to the Blue Jays line-up last season. He will provide protection for the new addition of Frank Thomas, and the two of them could re-create the bash brothers in Toronto.
Mike Lowell was solid at 3rd base last season for the Red Sox, and hit for average. There was, and still is a little rumor that Lowell will be traded to the Rockies. According to Sports Weekly, when Red Sox manager Terry Francona called him, Lowell answered the phone with, “Now batting sixth for the Rockies…”
Shortstop
1) Derek Jeter (New York)
2) Julio Lugo (Boston)
3) Royce Clayton (Toronto)
There is no question as to whether or not Jeter is the best of these three. He is the cream of the crop of shortstops around the league. Jeter finished second in AL MVP voting and many fans think he was robbed of the award. Jeter is known to come up with the big hits when it counts and always will sacrifice his body to get an out. Julio Lugo is a new acquisition for the Red Sox. He is a speedy player with a good glove, but it is widely believed that the Red Sox over paid for him when they signed him to a 4 year 36 million dollar contract. Clayton is 37 years old and no longer has the speed, or glove that he used to. Clayton hit only .258 last season and if he fails to produce Jason Smith might take his starting job.
Left Field
1) Manny Ramirez (Boston)
2) Hideki Matsui (New York)
3) Reed Johnson (Toronto)
Manny Ramirez is a horrific fielder and sometimes his drive to win is questionable. That being said, he is a monster at the plate. While his homerun, RBI and runs scored totals dropped last season, his OPS (On base Plus Slugging percentage) was the highest it had been in 6 years. Manny hit 35 homeruns, 102 RBI and scored 79 runs last season. He also drew 100 walks.
Hideki Matsui, or Godzilla, had a streak of 518 straight games played as a Yankee or, if you include his time with the Yomiuri Giants, 1768 games overall before he broke his wrist midway through last season. Matsui was on pace to have a career year last season. Matsui is very consistent and rarely goes into slumps, although he was just put on the 15 day disabled list and Melky Cabrera will play in his place until he gets back.
Reed Johnson is the type of ballplayer that everyone wants on their team; he hustles, he dives, he gets dirty, and he is a true team player. Johnson will not be platooning with Frank Catalanotto. His average will probably drop because he has to face right handed pitchers as well.
Centerfield
1) Vernon Wells (Toronto)
2) Johnny Damon (New York)
3) Coco Crisp (Boston)
Wells, a Gold Glove winner for the past three seasons had a breakout year last season and was awarded a 126 million dollar, 7 year contract extension. The face of the Blue Jays franchise, Wells, hit 32 homeruns, 106 RBI and 91 runs. Johnny Damon, the ex Boston Red Sox self-acclaimed idiot, hits from the leadoff position for the Yankees. He hit 24 homeruns and stole 25 bases. Even though he had a productive season for the Yankees, his average was down .031 percent and he struck more than he had ever done. Crisp is a speedy player and could quickly become a fan favorite in Boston. In his first season in Boston he missed many games due injury and looks to be more of an impact this season.
Rightfield
1) Bobby Abreu (New York)
2) Alex Rios (Toronto)
3) J.D. Drew (Boston)
Abreu is in the decline of his career, but he still is one of the elite players in the league. His home run total has declined for the past two seasons, (only 15 last season). It is believed that that was partially due to him adjusting to playing for the Yankees when he was traded from the Phillies. Alex Rios had a breakout year for the Jays, but unfortunately he had a staph infection that kept him out of the lineup for a month. He has started hot and could be enroute to a great season. Drew signed a 5 year 70 million dollar contract with the Red Sox this off-season. Drew was vastly overpaid. He is in the decline of his career, only hit 20 homeruns last season and strikes out way too much. The Red Sox are going to regret this signing, as this money could have and should have been better spent.
Putting it all together
In real estate the saying is ‘location, location, location’. In baseball it is, ‘pitching, pitching, pitching’. Right now, it seems that the Jays have the best pitching in the AL East. AJ Burnett finished last season on a tear, and if he doesn’t get injured he seems poised for a career year. Chacin could be decent for the Jays, but it is the back end of the Jays rotation that could prove to be the wildcard. Be it Towers, Ohka, Jansenn, Thomson or someone else filling in the rotation, this depth may prove to be the difference. No other team in the AL East has as much depth at the back end of their rotation and bullpen as the Jays.
Throughout the season expect some movement in and out of first pace between these teams but the Yankees lack of pitching, and the Red Sox lack of hitting (and mediocre pitching) will catch up to them and will be their Achilles heel, respectively, as the Blue Jays will win the AL East.
Blue Jay fans, this is the year the 12 year playoff drought ends. If the Jays get hot come October, get ready for a parade down Yonge Street!
Question/comments can be emailed to Jonathan Rosenbluth at rosenbluth12@yahoo.com |
