| Christopher Reina. 11th October, 2007 - 8:11 pm
 2007 Record: 94-68
2nd in AL Central
2007 Pythagorean Record: 97-65
The Yankees naysayers were licking their chops when they were 14.5 games behind the Red Sox on May 29th, making the Wildcard their only realistic hope throughout the entire summer. The loser of the Indians/Tigers battle looked like a lock for the Wildcard, but the Yankees were 51-25 in the second half, while the Tigers went 36-40, leaving the path to the playoffs wide open by September 1st.
Behind eventual MVP Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees’ offense scored an MLB-high 968 runs and their pitching was good enough (4.50 ERA) to give the Yankees the second best Pythagorean record in the MLB behind the Red Sox.
General Manager
His job has been on the line several times before, but Brian Cashman comes out of this season looking as secure as ever. The Yankees returned to the postseason while also making way for young (and affordable) players at second, center and on the mound. It looked like the Yankees needed to make a move for a reliever like Eric Gagne, but he didn’t give up a young player or two for a pitcher who had a 6.75 ERA in his eventual destination, Boston. He instead brought up Joba Chamberlain (and his rules) and was rewarded with his 0.38 ERA.
He helped convince George Steinbrenner to stand behind Joe Torre, realizing the law averages and the weight of their team on paper would eventually lead to a turnaround.
The Roger Clemens signing now looks somewhat foolish, but it was a statement move and while not dominant, he was effective.
Manager
On paper, this is the toughest job in all of baseball, in part because Joe Torre has done the job so well, but due to the makeup of the team and George Steinbrenner’s decreased involvement, the difficulty is overrated. Whether or not Torre returns is largely irrelevant, because finding the right replacement (Don Mattingly or Joe Girardi) is easier than it would be difficult to find the wrong replacement (Tony LaRussa or Dusty Baker).
Catcher
The Yankees finally found an attractive backup catcher in Jose Molina, who is far better than a Sal Fasano or Wil Nieves, but Jorge Posada must be re-signed. He still plays an excellent catcher and his offensive numbers have been incredibly steady since 2000. Even though he is unlikely to have a .969 OPS again, he should continue to be one of the most productive 6th or 7th place hitters in the entire game and will likely retire following this three-year deal.
First Base
Ideally, the Yankees would be able to convert Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui into first basemen, but that scenario appears highly unlikely. They cannot count on Jason Giambi to stay healthy, let alone give them innings at first base.
There is no problem with Doug Mientkiewicz at the position, as he makes Jeter and Rodriguez look better and hit a respectable .277 and five homeruns in just 166 at bats.
Other options include Shelly Duncan, Andy Phillips and Wilson Betemit.
Because of the numbers game and since none of these players are the kind of first basemen the Yankees would like to see play 150 times a year, they should shop Duncan for a left-handed reliever. His homerun every 10.5 at bats will be attractive to numerous teams.
Second Base
Cano stayed healthy in 2007 and once again batted over .300 and nearly drove in 100 runs, proving the lofty expectations placed on his career by many of the best baseball minds is not mere New York inflation. It will be interesting to see how high his numbers go if he isn’t batting 7th or 8th all season.
Third Base
The Yankees acquired Wilson Betemit as an insurance policy of sorts, but there really is no insurance policy for replacing Alex Rodriguez. He is coming off the finest season of his already legendary career and is certainly worth the $300 million, 10-year deal he will command. The Yankees want to keep the Rangers cash in play (i.e. an extension rather than an opt out), but in reality, it will only be about 6% of what he Rodriguez he will receive, so it would be blatant pride to make this point a deal breaker.
Reaching the playoffs and winning World Series championships happened before Rodriguez and the Yankees certainly are capable of doing it again without him, but the chances of failing increase without him. He had 39 win shares in 2007, compared to 34 for David Wright, 30 for Miguel Cabrera and 24 for Mike Lowell’s surprise campaign. Posada was second on the Yankees with 26 win shares.
If Rodriguez does bolt for the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox or Dodgers, the Yankees will likely reach for Lowell or could even trade for Cabrera, but that would mean yielding Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy, at least.
Shortstop
There has been no doubt about the Yankees’ shortstop position since April 2nd, 1996. Before then, the position was a revolving door of names such as Tony Fernandez, Mike Gallego, Randy Velarde, Spike Owen, Andy Stankiewicz, Alvaro Espinoza and others.
But Derek Jeter is 33 and is hardly a competent shortstop anymore and certainly isn’t a Gold Glover, which he has been in each of the past three seasons following Omar Vizquel’s defection to the NL and Alex Rodriguez’s defection to the Yankees. He made 18 errors this season, the most since he made 24 in 2000. Jeter will need to move positions, most likely second base (depending on what happens with Cano), within a year or two.
(Cal Ripken moved to third base at 36, Nomar Garciaparra stopped playing the position at 31, while Robin Yount last played a game at shortstop at 28.)
At the plate though, Jeter is still as productive as ever, even with a nagging knee injury. His OPS dropped from .900 to .840 and his RBIs fell from 97 to 73.
Finally, Jeter proved he is no longer bulletproof in the postseason, batting .176 against the Indians, his lowest average since he hit .148 in his Mr. November 2001 World Series.
Left Field
The Yankees have a quandary in left field because of Johnny Damon’s inability to play center. Damon and Hideki Matsui will need to split time between left and designated hitter, unless they deal Damon, which is certainly possible. He has a partial no-trade clause and two more years on his contract, but if the Yankees send along a little cash, they will eventually find a taker.
Both Damon and Matsui remain fringe All-Stars at the plate, though Damon's decline from 2006 is alarming.
Center Field
The position currently belongs to Melky Cabrera since Johnny Damon played center field just seven times since July 1st. Cabrera hit .273, with eight homeruns, but he struggled in April (.200) and September (.180). He will have to be more consistent and the Yankees will certainly consider signing Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones, regardless of what happens with Rodriguez. Cabrera, who is an excellent friend of Rodriguez, will likely stay or go depending on whether or not the slugger stays.
As a departure from their galacticos-era, Cashman should make Aaron Rowand their top priority this winter. He has the intangible makeup of a Paul O’Neill and is coming off a season in which he hit .309, with 27 homeruns.
By signing Rowand, they would then be able to trade Cabrera in a package for a proven pitcher like Joe Blanton.
Right Field
After recovering from a rough start (.208/1 HR/9 RBIs in May), Bobby Abreu finished the season batting .283 with 101 RBIs. He will turn 34 during Spring Training, but he should be expected to replicate a similar line of production as he has the past decade. The Yankees are sure to pick up their team-option and wouldn’t be foolish to discuss an extension that would keep him New York so long as he can patrol right field.
Though unlikely, the Yankees could pull the same maneuver they did last winter with Abreu and pick up his option with the intention of trading him, which would allow the Yankees to keep Damon and move Matsui to right field. This would likely be their course of action if not for Abreu’s full no-trade clause.
Designated Hitter
As it was in 2007, the designated hitter slot will be shuffled amongst Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Shelley Duncan and others, depending on injuries. None of these players are capable of playing more than 150 games in a season at this stage in their careers.
This will be the final season of Giambi’s seven-year, $120 million contract and likely his last with the Yankees.
Starting Pitching
Despite his disappointing performance in the 2007 playoffs, Chien-Ming Wang will be their ace again next season. No pitcher has won more games over the past two seasons than Wang.
While far from a certainty, Andy Pettitte is likely to exercise his $16 million option for 2008. He threw 215.3 innings with an ERA of 4.05. Pettitte pitched exceptionally well in Game 2 of the ALDS and should be on the mound just before the wrecking ball hits Yankee Stadium.
The third starter will be Philip Hughes, who was excellent in September, throwing 29.2 innings at an ERA of 2.73. His 2007 lower body injuries forced the Yankees to bring his arm along slowly. His flawless mechanics should keep his arm healthy over the next 10 seasons and with his combination of speed and control, Hughes will likely surpass Wang as the Yankees’ ace by year two of the new Yankee Stadium.
(Update: The Yankees have decided to make Joba Chamberlain a starter in 2008, which is a decision I feel creates higher risks than rewards.)
Another young pitcher in the Yankees’ rotation will be Ian Kennedy. He had a 1.89 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his 19 innings in 2007. He began the season in A ball, demonstrating just how quickly the 21st draft pick in 2006 has ascended through the system.
Between their youth and the lack of quality free agent starters this winter, their fifth starter might as well be Mike Mussina at this point. his 5.15 for 2007, he did have a 3.49 ERA in September. He will be a serviceable stopgap before the superb free agent class of 2009, which will feature Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny and Ben Sheets, amongst others.
Relief Pitching
The Yankees bullpen was less reliable than it historically has been, but Joba Chamberlain’s arrival made it virtually bulletproof.
He could be made a start, but his career trajectory currently resembles Jonathan Papelbon’s and the Yankees should leave it that way. Chamberlain is more open to remaining in the bullpen than Papelbon was for Boston.
"There's not one that's better than the other, and there's not one that's more important than the other,” said Chamberlain. “It's just going to come down to what's best for this team and what's best for me."
He should be groomed to replace Mariano Rivera as closer, but that passing of the torch should come in 2010, not 2008. Despite Rivera stating his decision to re-sign can hinge upon Torre, there is little chance of him leaving. The Yankees will offer him more money than anyone else and the lure of retiring in pinstripes will make the decision on his end quite easy.
Beyond one of the best 1-2 setup/closer combinations in the entire MLB, the Yankees have a talented but unreliable bullpen.
Kyle Farnsworth has the stuff of a closer and the composure of a little leaguer. Luis Vizcaino had a great June, July and August stretch before a disastrous September, but he should be re-signed.
Kei Igawa will also be a possibility in multiple roles, as the Yankees have not given up on the Japanese lefty.
In free agency, the Yankees will certainly take a look at a Scott Linebrink.
Farm System
The once depleted Yankee farm system looks much better after the successful debuts of Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain. With those three pitchers part of their 25-man roster in 2008, there are still a few promising names that will remain on the farm.
Pitchers Dellin Betances, Humberto Sanchez, Alan Horne and hitters Jose Tabata and Jesus Montero are the players with the highest ceilings.
While Sanchez missed all of 2007 due to Tommy John surgery, Betances is just 19 but is highly touted. Horne had a 3.12 ERA in 153.1 innings in AA ball this season.
In A ball, Tabata hit .307 with five homeruns in 2007. Montero is the catcher who will eventually replace Posada and was given a $2 million signing bonus in 2006.
The Yankees are expected to pursue Edward Salcedo, who is a 16-year-old shortstop prospect out of the Dominican represented by Scott Boras.
As the Yankees have demonstrated, they can afford to pluck All-Star quality positional talent in free agency if they are unable to develop the Robinson Cano's. |
