| Christopher Reina. 22nd October, 2007 - 7:19 pm
 2007 Record: 83-79
2007 Pythagorean Record: 87-75
3rd in AL East
2007 Payroll: $82 million (16th in MLB, 7th in AL)
Despite below average seasons from Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus, the Blue Jays did manage to be four games over .500 and also had one of the finest Pythagorean records for any team who didn’t qualify the playoffs.
Over the next two or three years, the Blue Jays must be opportunistic in the AL East chase because both the Yankees and Red Sox will be transitioning.
The Blue Jays can’t merely compete with those two teams by entering into an arms race. They need to build their team differently (especially through developing homegrown talent) and one aspect of the game they need to put more emphasis on is team speed.
General Manager
Like so many people, J.P. Ricciardi can complain about the way the Red Sox and Yankees can spend money, but his track record in developing his own homegrown players has been dismal. Jesse Litsch, Shawn Marcum and Aaron Hill may change things in this department, but he still needs to do better.
The free agent signings of A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan have been mistakes, but the 2006 trade for Jeremy Accardo saved Ryan’s Tommy John surgery from being an utter disaster.
He has managed to make the Blue Jays competitive despite a tepid payroll, but his margin of error is slim and his window of opportunity is diminishing quickly despite being signed through 2010.
Manager
This will be John Gibbons last season with the Blue Jays unless he can get the club at the absolute doorstep of the playoffs. The success barometer will be measured by whether or not Toronto plays meaningful games into mid-September.
This hasn’t happened for more than a decade.
Gibbons can’t be blamed for this season, despite a record several wins below their Pythagorean Record, due to a whole host of injuries.
Catcher
Toronto catchers (Gregg Zaun, Jason Phillips, Sal Fasano and Curtis Thigpen) combined to bat .223 in 2007.
Zaun was clearly the best offensively and management appears married to him for at least one more season. An improvement defensively would be greatly welcomed, but Zaun is not quite as bad as people believe.
Letting the 24-year-old Thigpen see more at bats is a decent idea, but there are no indicators that the 2nd round choice in 2004 will ever develop into anything more than a decent backup.
First Base
Lyle Overbay’s second season in Toronto was far different than his first one. His OPS dropped from .880 down to .706, which was especially costly since Toronto leans so heavily on his lefty bat. Overbay was especially bad in the second half, hitting just two homeruns and batting .225. The injury to his broken hand on a pitch from John Danks was the likely culprit, however, which should mean a bounce back season in 2008 from Overbay.
Second Base
With below average seasons from many of their top power producers, Aaron Hill’s 17 homeruns were a very plesant surprise. One drawback of Hill’s power surge was his proclivity to strikeout, which he did 102 times in 2007.
Third Base
Troy Glaus is a player that could be traded off to the Yankees or Red Sox if the situations with Alex Rodriguez and Mike Lowell end in departures, but given his weak current value, they should retain him. Glaus is still just 31 despite being a regular for a decade now. He bounced back from his 2003 and 2004 injury-ridden seasons to become a high-30’s homerun producer and it could happen for him again in 2008.
Shortstop
Throwing John McDonald out at short for another 100-plus games next season is an option the Blue Jays should avoid at all costs.
Toronto shortstops combined to record an OPS of .598 in 2007.
There are several shortstops that could be available via trade this winter, but Rafael Furcal would be the one that makes the most sense for Toronto. He is coming off a season in which he had a .688 OPS, but this was largely due to a season-long ankle injury. Furcal is entering his walk year and the Dodgers are extremely high on Chin-Ling Hu.
Another veteran shortstop that could be available is Edgar Renteria. The cost will be roughly the same, but Furcal's speed on the turf would set things up nicely for the middle of their lineup.
A cheaper alternative via trade would be Jack Wilson of the Pirates.
Burnett is the pitcher that should be shopped to upgrade this position.
Left Field
The Blue Jays don’t have many left-handed bats in their lineup, so it is essential that Adam Lind delivers on some of the promise he has already shown. After hitting .367 with two homeruns in just 60 at bats in 2006, more was expected of him this season.
Ideally a platoon of Lind and Reed Johnson would ease the youngster along to see if he can improve his power, but Johnson will likely be non-tendered.
I believe Matt Stairs’ .289/21/64 in just 357 at bats is an aberration, re-signing him won’t cost much and he would be excellent insurance against Lind and an injury to Frank Thomas.
Centerfield
The fact that Vernon Wells played most of 2007 with a shoulder injury is actually good news. His .245/16/80 is not the kind of return you like to see on $126 million. It is unlikely that Wells will ever be a 40 homerun kind of player, but if he can get his OPS around .900 (almost 200 points higher than this season), then you’re looking at a franchise player you can live with.
Right Field
Alex Rios is eligible for arbitration this winter and the Blue Jays are will likely attempt to sign him to a lengthy extension.
He has had an OPS of at least .850 in each of his past two seasons and continues to improve nearly every aspect of his game. He has exceeded expectations to become the player he has developed into already and due to his combination of size and athleticism, he could continue his steady climb.
The majority of his homeruns were before the break, but his average rose as the year progressed.
Designated Hitter
The strategy of signing end of career players like Frank Thomas to start contracts is an effective way of competing with the coffers of New York and Boston on an annual basis.
If they hadn’t signed Thomas to a multi-year contract last winter, Barry Bonds would be an ideal fit here because of his high OPS and left-handed bat.
Starting Pitching
If Toronto ever managed a return to the playoffs, they would be extremely difficult to contend with due to Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. Due to a nice young core of pitchers in their early to mid 20’s (Marcum, Litsch, McGowan and Chacin), Ricciardi should heavily shop Burnett.
Halladay pitched 225.3 innings in 2007, his most since 2003 (Cy Young season) when he threw 266. His ERA and WHIP were higher than normal, but much of his is due to his early season appendectomy. Halladay had an 8.31 ERA in May and 4.89 in June, but 3.38 in both July and August, while it sunk to 2.97 in September.
With Todd Helton enjoying playoff success this season, Halladay now has the title of best player to have never played in the postseason.
Burnett made 25 starts for Florida in 2007, continuing a streak of relatively decent health by his standards. He had a 3.75 ERA, but it was down to 3.01 for the second half, largely due to a dominating month of August. If Burnett has even a halfway healthy season in 2008, he will opt out of his contract and will command another extraordinarily rich payday.
Dustin McGowan lost his no-hit bid against the Rockies in the 9th inning last June, which would have put him in a select class of pitchers, but his 4.08 ERA in his first full season in Toronto gives the Jays a reason to be optimistic about the middle of their rotation. McGowan was drafted in the first round back in 2000 and his ascendance through the system was met with great expectations, but it was slower than most would have liked. He seems to have developed and like Burnett, McGowan was better in the second half, posting a 3.67 ERA over 98 innings.
Shaun Marcum had a 3.91 ERA as a starter in 2007, but there is a fear that this is as good as the almost 26-year-old will ever fare. His WHIP vs. ERA puts him in rare company largely due to his HR/9 of 1.53, which was 9th last season for pitchers with at least 15 decisions. Marcum is a control pitcher, who should see an improvement in this area as he matures and sees more corner strikes from umpires.
Jesse Litsch is the Blue Jays’ answer to Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz, except the 22-year-old actually has 111 innings as a MLB starter. He finished the season with a 3.81 ERA and a WHIP of 1.369, but he did see dips in his ERA in August and September. Only Yovani Gallardo and Matt Cain had lower ERAs of pitchers 22 or younger in 2007. Like Marcum, Litsch will need to lower his HR/9 (1.14) to reach the levels of Gallardo (.65) and Cain (.63).
If the Blue Jays do indeed trade a starter, they will then rely on Gustavo Chacin to be a reliable starter in 2008. Chacin had surgery in August to repair his rotator cuff. When he’s healthy, Chacin has been very good, as evidenced by his rookie season in 2005 when he posted a 3.72 ERA. He can’t be relied upon, but if he can get his health in order, having a lefty of his caliber starting would be a godsend.
Casey Janssen was brilliant in his role as a setup man and could factor into the equation depending on where he is most needed.
Relief Pitching
The injury to B.J. Ryan took some teeth out of their contention chances, but it did give Jeremy Accardo a chance to close and the Blue Jays still had one of the better bullpens in the AL.
Ryan’s signed through 2010, so hopefully he’ll be able to pitch effectively again, but if not, leaving Accardo as the closer (2.14 ERA/30 saves) wouldn’t mean much of a slide in that department.
Casey Janssen posted a 2.35 ERA in his 72.7 innings. If Ryan can’t return early in 2007, he will be a great 8th inning option.
Scott Downs was one of the finest lefties in 2007, with his 2.17 ERA in 81 appearances.
Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor were also serviceable in their roles.
Farm System
Because the Blue Jays need to compete with New York and Boston, the franchise must beat their rivals in this area specifically.
Jesse Litsch arrived well in Toronto and Adam Lind looks like he’s done with Syracuse.
This leaves Travis Snider, Ricky Romero and Balbino Fuenmayor as their chief hopes.
Snider was very good this season in A ball, posting an OPS of .902. His 19-year-old left handed corner outfield bat can’t come along quickly enough.
Romero will always, unfair or not, be compared to Troy Tulowitzki since they passed on the Rockies shortstop for Romero in the 2005 draft. He had a 4.84 ERA in 2007, making that decision (along with the World Series) and subsequently their search for a shortstop this winter all the more painful. |
