| Christopher Reina. 4th March, 2008 - 10:36 pm
 Despite below average seasons from Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and Troy Glaus, the Blue Jays did manage to be four games over .500 and also had one of the finest Pythagorean records for any team who didn’t qualify the playoffs.
2007 Record: 83-79
2007 Pythagorean Record: 87-75
Team FIC Batting: 6.47 per game (18th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.58 per game (10th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: Wells’ .245/16/80 is not the kind of return you like to see on $126 million. He had a season FIC of 135, which was barely beat out scrapheap teammate Shannon Stewart’s 133 with Oakland.
Alex Rios had a season FIC of 219, once again posting an above .850 OPS.
Frank Thomas gave them everything they expected when they signed him during the previous offseason but got very little else from their lineup.
They were 10th in the AL in runs scored, largely because they had too many mid-.200 hitters.
On the mound: Roy Halladay pitched 225.3 innings in 2007, his most since 2003 (Cy Young season) when he threw 266. His ERA and WHIP were higher than normal, but much of his is due to his early season appendectomy.
A.J. Burnett made 25 starts for Florida in 2007, continuing a streak of relatively decent health (by his standards). He had a 3.75 ERA, but it was down to 3.01 for the second half, largely due to a dominating month of August.
Dustin McGowan had a 4.08 ERA in his first full season in Toronto gives the Jays a reason to be optimistic about the middle of their rotation.
Jesse Litsch finished the season with a 3.81 ERA and a WHIP of 1.369, but he did see dips in his ERA in August and September.
The injury to B.J. Ryan took some teeth out of their contention chances, but it did give Jeremy Accardo a chance to close and the Blue Jays still had one of the better bullpens in the AL.
What Happened In The Offseason
Beyond importing the Cardinals’ left side of the infield, not a whole lot happened in Toronto this winter other than another disappointing Leafs’ season.
J.P. Ricciardi swapped Glaus for Scott Rolen and also signed David Eckstein.
Glaus and Rolen are thought to be a near wash, but comparing their numbers since 2005 and the Jays downgraded at third base, at least offensively.
Glaus: .506 slugging, .361 on base, 95 homeruns, 417 games
Rolen: .452 slugging, .347 on base, 35 homeruns, 310 games
Rolen will turn 33 during the first week of the season and if his shoulder woes are indeed behind him, he can rebound and return to his 2004 numbers.
Eckstein had a per game FIC of 0.91 which not surprisingly dwarfs John McDonald’s 0.16 per game. Eckstein’s OPS is a full 100 points better than McDonald’s, at least.
The addition of Marco Scutaro will give the Jays a ton of flexibility at about five positions, and he is actually making less money this season ($1.575 million) compared to last season ($1.325 million) when he had a .693 OPS and seven homeruns in 379 plate appearances for Oakland.
The Jays also flirted with trading Rios to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for Tim Lincecum, which was a trade discussion that made little sense for either team. The Giants are a few years away from competing and Lincecum is a rotation ace while the Jays already had enough frontline pitching with Halladay, McGowan, and Burnett.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Everything at the plate begins with how Wells can rebound in 2008. He is frequently a slow starter and will feel the pressure of producing should he start April that way this year. He would almost have to try to have a .706 OPS this season so he will likely be in the .850 region and could even climb it up towards .950 if he’s healthy.
Will Rios continue to play like an All-Star or can he take his game to the next step and become a truly elite power/average outfielder? If he can climb his homerun total up to 30-35, then it should create a domino effect on the rest of the lineup.
Thomas could continue to defy aging and post another .277/.377/.480 season with 26 homeruns, which would be satisfying or he could even match his Oakland production when he hit 39 homers.
On the mound: Halladay, Burnett and McGowan could combine for 90 starts with ERAs of 2.50/3.00/3.50 respectively, which would give the Jays an outstanding head start against the rest of the AL.
They then can get a healthy season from Gustavo Chacin who is recovering from shoulder surgery and continued end of the rotation consistency from Shaun Marcum.
In the bullpen, if Ryan somehow manages to keep his elbow healthy, then they would have an excellent 1-2 punch with him and Accardo, which would unquestionably shorten games.
What Should Happen This Season
If Toronto was in the AL West, it would be much easier to like their playoff chances, but the AL East will somehow be even more brutal in 2008. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball on paper; the Yankees should be more consistent than they were last season; and the Devil Rays have improved. The Jays will have to fight with the Mariners/Angels and Tigers/Indians loser for the Wild card and will need absolute All-Stars seasons from about six guys (Halladay, Rios, Wells, Burnett, and another hitter) to be anything more than an also-ran.
Five biggest questions for 2008
1. What will happen if Wells isn't healthy/productive?
2. How many games will Halladay and Burnett lose to injury?
3. Will the Jays get any production from the left side of the plate?
4. Is winning the AL East a realistic possibility?
5. Will Ricciardi mortgage some of the future to make an in-season upgrade if they're within striking distance of the playoffs?
Prediction: 87-75
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
