| Christopher Reina. 11th March, 2008 - 10:49 pm
 The Los Angeles Dodgers were a popular choice to win the NL West in 2007, but they found themselves well behind the Colorado Rockies (NL Champions), Arizona Diamondbacks (NL West Champions), and San Diego Padres (tied for Wild Card).
The Dodgers were second in the NL in batting (.275) but 10th in runs at 4.5 per game. This gap was largely a result of their .406 slugging percentage and just 129 homeruns (15th in the NL). With Andruw Jones now in centerfield, will he help put more runs on the board at Chavez Ravine?
2007 Record: 82-80
2007 Pythagorean Record: 82-80
Team FIC Batting: 7.56 per game (10th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.66 per game (8th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: As mentioned above, the Dodgers had a horrible time scoring runs despite a collection of very smart and talented hitters.
Russell Martin had an .843 OPS, third among all catchers, behind just Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez.
James Loney hit .331, with an OPS of .919 while fielding a very fine first base.
Rafael Furcal had the most disappointing season of his career in 2007, largely due to his ankle injury. His .270 average and .355 slugging percentage were both career lows.
Nomar Garciaparra followed up a very nice resurgence in 2006 (.303/20/93) with a frustrating 2007 (.283/7/59) in nearly the same amount of games.
Juan Pierre drew the ire of many Dodgers’ fans because of his high-priced salary, but he had the highest season FIC of any hitter on their club and had a +14% Reina Value. What made the Ned Colleti move problematic is how it stunted the development of Matt Kemp, who had an .894 OPS in just 311 plate appearances.
Jeff Kent had another typical Jeff Kent year, hitting .302/.375/.500 while also rubbing some of the young players on the club the wrong way.
On the mound: Brad Penny was especially strong with his 3.03 ERA, good for fourth in MLB. He had a season FIC of 233 or 7.06 per start.
For the third straight season, Derek Lowe had a sub-4.00 ERA. He did seem to tire down the stretch, posting a 5.23 ERA in the second half.
Chad Billingsley split time between the bullpen and finished the season very strong, posting a 3.12 ERA in the second half.
But high-priced free agent acquisition Jason Schmidt made just six starts.
Takashi Saito had 39 saves and a 1.40 ERA while allowing just 13 walks.
Saito was setup very well by Jonathan Broxton, who is certainly being groomed to eventually be the Dodgers’ closer.
What Happened In The Offseason
Grady Little was pushed into resignation in late October, and the Dodgers subsequently hired Joe Torre on a $14.5 million, three-year contract. Torre did a masterful job of blending young players (Jeter, Bernie, Mariano) and veterans (O’Neill, Boggs, Cone) when he arrived in the Bronx in the mid-90’s, and the Dodgers believe he can do likewise in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers took a short-term risk on Andruw Jones. The last time Jones struggled as badly as he did in 2007 (.222/.311/.413) was all the way back in 2001 (.251/.312/.461). Over the past 10 seasons, Jones has hit 363 homeruns, good for eighth in the entire MLB. The Dodgers are counting on at least 30 homeruns from Jones as Kent led the team in homers last season with just 20.
They also signed Hiroki Kuroda to a three-year, $35.3 million deal, and he should eat a lot of innings in the back end of their rotation. He is a ground-ball specialist and has a 3.69 career ERA and 103-89 record in Japan.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: The Dodgers continue to produce baserunners and follow it up by coming up with big hits and more importantly, long hits.
Jones turns into a nice bargain by hitting 40 homers and hitting .280.
The young hitters all increase their OPS by showing more power and evolving as more patient hitters.
Garciaparra bounces back and becomes the game’s most dangerous pinch hitter.
On the mound: Penny and Lowe make a serious push towards Jake Peavy and Chris Young as the NL West’s best 1-2 punch. Billingsley gives the Dodgers 25 quality starts while Kuroda throws 200 solid innings.
Meanwhile, the bullpen is as consistent as it was last season.
What Should Happen This Season
The Rockies and Diamondbacks are bound to fall from their 2007 success, giving way for a Dodgers' team that has the best balance of talent in the NL West.
If they don’t return to the playoffs, it really will either be a result of injuries to their rotation or chemistry issues at the desk of Joe Torre.
Five biggest questions
1. Will Penny and Lowe stay healthy enough to start 64 games between them?
2. How will Torre juggle four outfielders that expect to play everyday?
3. Will Martin, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, and LaRoche take another step forward as they get older?
4. Will Colletti consolidate their deep team by making a trade for a true impact player?
5. Can Torre’s presence change the culture in the clubhouse?
Prediction: 92-70
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
