| Christopher Reina. 12th March, 2008 - 5:55 pm
 Despite the surprising midseason departure of Mike Hargrove, the Mariners finished just six games out of the Wildcard and AL West, but only the Diamondbacks overachieved more in 2007.
Will their NL-style team be good enough in the very thick and talented American League?
2007 Record: 88-74
2007 Pythagorean Record: 79-83
Team FIC Batting: 7.80 per game (8th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.24 per game (26th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Mariners were second in the AL in batting, but seventh in on-base percentage, largely due to their very low walk total (last in the AL) and very high strikeout total (second highest in AL).
Ichiro continued to be the heart and soul of the Mariners’ lineup, putting up a line of .451/.396/.431 and 13 intentional walks. He is one of eight players in history to be walked more than 10 times intentionally while stealing 35 or bases while hitting 10 or fewer homruns in a season and that has now happened to him four times (Lou Brock accomplished the feat three times, while Tony Gwynn did it twice).
Richie Sexson had an atrocious season, batting .205 with 21 homers in 121 games. He had a Reina Value of -96%, ‘deserving’ to make just $650k despite his $15.5 million salary.
Raul Ibanez continues to produce in anonymity, though his .899 OPS against righties versus .650 against lefties in 2007 was again his achilles heel.
Adrian Beltre continued to settle into life in Seattle, posting a .276/.319/.482 with 26 homers, while Yuiesky Betancourt gave them enough offense with his .726 OPS to keep up with his excellent defense.
On the mound: J.J. Putz was arguably and according to my FIC, was the best closer in the game in 2007, posting a 235, which was 42nd amongst all pitchers. He had a 1.38 ERA and 40 saves over 71.7 innings, while striking out 82 and walking just 13.
Felix Hernandez took a step forward, dropping his ERA from 4.52 to 3.92, becoming a smarter pitcher. He had a K/BB ratio of 2.66 in 2006 and 3.11 in 2007.
George Sherrill was an excellent lefty specialist, posting a 2.36 ERA over 45.7 innings and 73 appearances.
But beyond, these three pitchers, Seattle’s staff was hugely average or flatly bad. Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn each threw 193 innings and had a 4.29/4.32 ERA respectively. Jeff Weaver had a 6.20 ERA and Horacio Ramirez was worse with a 7.16 ERA.
What Happened In The Offseason
The Mariners upgraded their rotation via a costly trade (Erik Bedard) and a costly free agent acquisition (Carlos Silva).
After posting a 4.00 ERA in 24 starts in 2005 and a 3.76 ERA in 2006, Bedard fully broke out with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.088 WHIP in 2007.
He had a season Field Impact Counter score of 242 (8.65 per start) and a Reina Value of +282% as he deserved a $13 million salary despite taking in just $3.4 million. Only Jake Peavy had a better per start FIC, posting a 8.67 in pitcher-friendly Petco Park and the light-hitting NL West.
The price was extremely high (especially when considering what Adam Jones would have eventually met to this lineup), arguably more than what the Mets yielded to acquire Johan Santana. He only will cost the Mariners $7 million in 2008.
Silva ‘deserved’ a $7.2 million salary by posting a season FIC of 182, which means he will need to improve considerably to warrant his $12 million annual salary. He rebounded in 2007 from his awful 2006, but still was off from his excellent 2005 when he walked just nine batters in 188.3 innings.
They let Jose Guillen walk to Kansas City in free agency and replaced him with Brad Wilkerson. If he regains the patience he exhibited early in his career, he can become an .850 OPS hitter yet again, though it’s unlikely since he will bat in such an impatient Seattle lineup.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Sexson is bound to be better in 2008, being healthier and increasing his bat speed again. He is unlikely to hit 45 homers as he did in 2001 and 2003, but he should be in the mid-30’s again.
Beltre, Ibanez and Ichiro put up another typical season for their careers and Kenji Johjima, Jose Lopez and Betancourt become more patient and do a better job against the off-speed pitch.
On the mound: Hernandez and Bedard will strike plenty of hitters out which will protect their overrated defense.
Silva becomes a surprisingly worthwhile high-price number three starter, while Washburn and Silva have enough veteran savvy to keep the Mariners close in their starts.
Putz doesn’t duplicate his 2007 (0.698 WHIP), but is as good as he was in 2006 (0.919 WHIP).
What Should Happen This Season
The Mariners are a vogue choice to give the Angels their money’s worth and also vie for a Wildcard slot given the weakness of their schedule, but they are looking at a team that won 88 games last year and upgraded significantly in their rotation but that is seeing only half the picture.
Clearly, the Mariners overachieved in 2007, so Bedard and Silva really are joining a .500 team and should only give them an additional 7 wins, which means they will be left out of the postseason again.
Their defense and hitting are just not nearly as good as the other AL contenders, even if Bedard and Hernandez can offset those deficiencies in 70 starts.
Five biggest questions
1. Will Felix and Bedard stay healthy?
2. Can the Mariners get more long ball in 2008?
3. Where in their lineup can they seriously upgrade?
4. Will the Mariners be able to get fat on the A’s and Rangers?
5. Can Sexson hit 40 homeruns again?
Prediction: 89-73
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
