| Christopher Reina. 15th March, 2008 - 5:53 pm
 Following 14 consecutive Octobers, the Braves have missed the playoffs each of the past two seasons.
Despite underachieving, they finished just five games behind the Phillies and the Rockies/Padres in the Wildcard.
With Mark Teixeira in tow for a full season season and an improved rotation, how will the Braves compete in the top-heavy NL East?
2007 Record: 84-78
2007 Pythagorean Record: 88-74
Team FIC Batting: 7.13 per game (14th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.51 per game (11th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: Chipper Jones eclipsed the 1.000 mark in OPS for the second consecutive year and also was healthier, playing in 134 games.
Brian McCann was allowed to stop looking over his shoulder at Jarrod Saltalamacchia after the dealt the talented catching prospect to Texas for Mark Teixeira. He seemed to play better after the trade although it is alarming to see his OPS nearly 200 points below his previous season (however unrealistic a .960 OPS might be for even the best catchers).
Teixeira couldn’t get the Braves into the playoffs, but he did have a 1.019 OPS and 17 homers in just 208 at bats.
After missing 2006 due to Tommy John surgery, Kelly Johnson had a .276/.375/.457 line, which put him fifth behind Chase Utley, Jeff Kent, Placido Polanco, and Robinson Cano among second basemen.
Andrew Jones hit half as many homeruns as he did in 2005 and let his OPS fall to a frightening .724.
Edgar Renteria had another highly productive season, but he played in 124 games which showcased the budding play of Cuban-native Yunel Escobar and his .326/.385/.451.
Jeff Francoeur figured out his .293 OBP of 2006 by collecting 19 more walks and 19 more hits, but he belted 10 fewer homeruns.
Matt Diaz had another very nice season at the plate, hitting .338/.368/.497 as part of a platoon with Willie Harris. He beat up lefties with his .964 OPS, but he certainly was solid enough against righties (.318 average with a lot less power) to warrant a look as their everyday option.
On the mound: John Smoltz continued to brazenly defy age and logic by throwing 205.7 innings of 3.11 ball. He was the 14th best starter in the MLB according to my FIC, with a season total of 240 and a +61% Reina Value.
Tim Hudson trailed Smoltz just slightly, ranking 17th amongst pitchers with a 237 FIC. Hudson had a 3.33 ERA and threw 224.3 innings.
Lefty Chuck James gave the Braves 161.3 innings and a serviceable 4.24 ERA, but the lack of depth in the rest of the rotation hurt Atlanta. Buddy Carlyle and Kyle Davis each had ERA's well over five, and neither Jo-Jo Reyes or Lance Cormier fared well either.
For the second consecutive season, Mike Hampton didn’t throw a single pitch.
Bob Wickman was released after the Braves could no longer stomach the blown saves, and Rafael Soriano finished the season as their closer.
What Happened In The Offseason
Tom Glavine is back in Atlanta after a five-year (that was a quick five years) defection in Queens.
Renteria was cleared to Detroit to make room for Escobar, and the gift was Jair Jurrjens, who has been a highly touted prospect for several seasons now and appears MLB-ready now.
A. Jones was allowed to leave without much resistance after 12 seasons, 368 homeruns, and who knows how many web gems.
Mark Kotsay and a healthily subsidized salary came over from Oakland for Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Jones plays 130 games and has another MVP-caliber season under the protection of Teixeira.
Escobar has looked great this spring, and both he and Johnson make up a young middle infield combo primed to make a huge splash.
While still not like 2006, McCann has a better line than 2007 and Francoeur, who is still just 24, sees his OBP climb and his HR/AB ratio return to what it was once he debuted.
Kotsay sees a nice bump of his OPS back to the .800’s by seeing the NL finesse pitchers he prefers.
Diaz gets an everyday chance in left field while Brent Lillibridge comes up from Richmond in June to fill in following an injury and gives the Braves a huge young boost.
On the mound: Smoltz and Hudson both pitch like aces, and Glavine anchors the middle of the rotation, giving the Braves some badly needed depth.
Chuck James will be in the mix again under more realistic expectations and improved health.
Atlanta is counting on Hampton to (knock on wood) throw some innings, but under no circumstances can they expect more than 150 innings so they will need six or seven starters, and Jurrjens has looked phenomenal so far this spring. The young righty fills the role of appealing to the Braves’ diehard Netherlands Antilles contingent and gives them 150 innings and a very health K/BB ratio.
Soriano proves to be an unflappable closer and becomes more attuned to pitching at home while making the Mariners look even more foolish for trading him for Horacio Ramirez.
What Should Happen This Season
I really like the Braves’ chances this season despite the Johan Santana trade and the tweaks made in Philadelphia. They have nice balance and the mental toughness of their club behind the venerable Bobby Cox cannot be understated. They will feast on the Marlins and Nationals and play .500 or better against the Phillies and Mets (as they did in 2007).
I see the Wildcard coming from the NL East with the Braves reaching the postseason one way or another.
Five biggest questions
1. Will 2008 convince Teixeira to reup in Atlanta long-term?
2. Can Glavine and Smoltz pitch as if it’s 1998?
3. Will Escobar fizzle from his 2007 numbers and make the Renteria trade regrettable?
4. Can the back end of the rotation produce?
5. Will their offense be shutout less frequently than last year (10 times in 2007)?
Prediction: 94-68
More 2008 Season Previews
- Washington Nationals
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
