| Christopher Reina. 18th March, 2008 - 3:26 pm
 After a one-year absence, playoff baseball returned to the Big A in 2007.
In the offseason, the Angels upgraded their roster both offensively and on the mound, but why are they not a vogue World Series pick?
2007 Record: 94-68
2007 Pythagorean Record: 90-72
Team FIC Batting: 8.50 per game (7th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 10.04 per game (3rd overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Angels were sixth in runs scored (822), but 28th in at bats per homer (45.2).
Vladimir Guerrero hit .324/.403/.547 and had ranked 13th among all players in season FIC with 279. He had a tidy Reina Value of +0%, but he is unmistakably one of the best bargains in baseball, especially when considering he carries such a huge weight of their offense. Guerrero had his hands on 13.01% of the Angels’ runs in 2007.
It’s become putative that Guerrero never walks, but his walk rate increased over his average last season. Heading into the season, he walked in 5.8% of his plate appearances (taking out intentional walks), and it rose to 6.8%.
After three straight seasons in the OPS .700’s, Garret Anderson finished the season with an .828 OPS. He looked to be nearing the end of his road, but he got healthy in the second half and hit .305/.361/.530 over 68 games.
In his first full season, Casey Kotchman had an .839 OPS with 37 doubles. He had a BB/K ratio of 1.23, which was tied for third in all of baseball. Kotchman is a high average hitter with a great glove, but his power totals are well below average for a first baseman.
Howie Kendrick couldn’t stay healthy but batted .322 with 24 doubles and five homers.
Chone Figgins fought injuries but posted a .330/.393/.432 line, all career highs, while Orlando Cabrera was durable and consistent, hitting .301/.345/.397.
Nobody in the MLB saw more pitchers per plate appearance than Reggie Willits (4.44), who hit .393 and stole 27 bases.
Gary Matthews hit .252/.323/.419 and was second in homers with 18. His end of season injury rendered him unavailable for the ALDS.
On the mound: Once again, the Angels had a very strong pitching staff from top to bottom.
John Lackey had a 3.01 ERA and 1.210 WHIP, both career highs, and finished third in Cy Young voting. According to our season FIC, he was the fifth best pitcher in baseball, with a score of 273 and a Reina Value of +149%.
Kelvim Escobar wasn’t far behind as the 16th best pitcher in the MLB and a 237 season FIC. He had a 3.40 ERA and a 7.36 K/9 IP rate.
Jered Weaver was the third member of the Angels’ rotation to post a sub-4.00 ERA, clocking in at 3.91 over 161.0 innings.
In the bullpen, Francisco Rodriguez saved 40 games and had a 2.81 ERA.
While not quite as automatic as he was in ’05 and ’06, Scot Shields had a 3.86 ERA, remaining one of the MLB’s premier setup men.
What Happened In The Offseason
The Angels were swiftly swept out of the postseason by Boston, and it was clear that their roster, while primo beefo in the AL West, does not fare well against the other AL powerhouses.
It could have become a blockbuster winter had Alex Rodriguez really become a free agent or if the Marlins hadn’t walked away from the Angels’ package for Miguel Cabrera.
But instead, they dealt Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for Jon Garland. The Angels had a surplus of shortstops with Macier Izturis and Erick Aybar as temporary stopgaps until Brandon Wood is ready at the plate.
They then signed Torii Hunter, further crowding an already crowded outfield. He clearly does not have the pop of a Miguel Cabrera or Alex Rodriguez, but he had more homers in 2007 than any Angel.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Guerrero stays healthy, Hunter protects Guerrero, Guerrero goes for .330/40/135, Guerrero wins second MVP.
Hunter and Matthews combine for 60 homers and stay healthy. Kendrick also stays healthy and competes for a batting crown.
Figgins plays a better third base and hits above .300 again with 50+ stolen bases.
On the mound: Lackey, Escobar, Garland, and Weaver are all healthy for the second half and into the playoffs.
Dustin Moseley eats innings as a starter while the front end pitchers recover from injuries.
Rodriguez and Shields continue their end of games dominance.
Darren O’Day, who some bloggers believe strongly resembles the great Morrissey, continues his red hot Spring Training into the regular season.
What Should Happen This Season
The injury bug that has hit Lackey and Escobar is discouraging as the Angels predicate their success on pitching, but the addition of Garland decreases that margin of error somewhat.
The Mariners have indisputably improved their club, but I still like the Angels significantly more, especially their lineup.
Five biggest questions
1. How will the Angels give enough at bats to Anderson, Willits, Matthews, and Juan Rivera?
2. Will Hunter see a post-contract decline (not apparently during the Spring)?
3. Can Lackey and Escobar each make 30 starts?
4. Will Rodriguez's long-term future in Anaheim become a distraction?
5. Is their window of opportunity closing?
Prediction: 92-70
More 2008 Season Previews
- Washington Nationals
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
