| Christopher Reina. 19th March, 2008 - 5:49 pm
 The ‘Moneyball’ era soberly and officially ended this winter, and the elephantine (Connie Mack elephant pun intended) task of rebuilding one of sports recent success stories.
The A’s 2006 appearance in the ALCS was really just a deodorant for their underlying problems. They overachieved greatly in the win/loss column, winning games by a +.27 margin that season and just -.11 last year, making that 17 win drop not terribly shocking
2007 Record: 76-86
2007 Pythagorean Record: 79-83
Team FIC Batting: 6.42 per game (19th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 8.88 per game (19th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: They were essentially the same offensive team in 2007 as they were in 2006, except the Frank Thomas experiment (Mike Piazza) appeared in just 83 games and had an OPS (.727) almost 200 points below his career average (.922).
Jack Cust became another Beane philosophy example with his .912 OPS. He walked in 20.7% of his plate appearances, the most of any player in the MLB.
Nick Swisher had a fine season with his .836 while playing heavy time at three different positions.
But as the case has all too often been, neither Eric Chavez nor Bobby Crosby appeared in 100 games. These were the lone two positional players Beane financially pledged himself to (I admittedly would have done the same) and they have been unredeemably injured underachievers.
Daric Barton’s call up in September, and his 1.068 OPS in 84 plate appearances was one small moral victory in an otherwise disappointing offensive season.
On the mound: With Barry Zito’s defection to San Francisco, all memory of the Big 3 was gone, but Danny Haren became the All-Star starter due to his 2.30 first half ERA. He finished the season with a 3.07 ERA while Mark Mulder threw just 11 innings in St. Louis.
Joe Blanton was once again a real horse for the A’s, throwing 230 innings of 3.95 ball.
But like Chavez and Crosby, Rich Harden once again managed to spend the majority of 2007 on the DL. He started just four games and made an additional three in relief work. He hasn’t made 30 or more starts since 2004 now.
Chad Gaudin was one of the better young back end rotation men in the game, throwing nearly 200 innings with a 4.42 ERA.
Huston Street saved 16 games and posted a 2.88 ERA but missed most of the summer due to irritation in his nerve. Veteran Alan Embree ended up saving 17 games for the A’s in his stead.
What Happened In The Offseason
Beane decided to strip down his club and stockpile a decimated farm system and though the judgment of his decisions are another three or four years away, I like the results thus far.
Haren was flipped to the Diamondbacks for Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith. Gonzalez and Anderson have the best chance at blossoming into stars for Oakland.
Gonzalez is a five-tooled centerfielder with good pop, who can become truly special (.900+ OPS) if he improves his K/BB rate.
Anderson is a 6’4” lefty who just turned 20 with a nice pedigree and excellent control.
Carter looks to be a Matt Stairs brand of slugger and Cunningham can become a versatile speedster with a little pop.
The package Oakland received for Swisher from the White Sox was also encouraging.
Fautino de los Santos and Gio Gonzalez were ranked #1 and #2 in Chicago’s (admittedly weak) system.
In 2007, De Los Santos had 154 strikeouts over 122.1 innings in A ball to go with his 2.65 ERA. The 6-foot Dominican only walked 43 and yielded just 69 hits. Despite a fastball in the low to mid 90’s, he has the potential to be an ace by 2010.
Gonzalez, a 1st round pick in 2004, posted a 3.18 ERA over 150 innings in AA ball in 2007 while striking out 185 and walking 57. Like so many lefties, Gonzalez works off an excellent curve. He projects, to me, a middle of the rotation starter.
They also dealt Mark Kotsay to Atlanta for Joey Devine and Jamie Richard and Marco Scutaro to Toronto for Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey.
In this year’s edition of the Big Hurt experiment, they signed Mike Sweeney, who is having a great spring.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Chavez and Crosby finally stay healthy and match the potential we universally see in their games.
Cust duplicates his 2007 and Barton duplicates his first cup of coffee in the MLB.
Gonzalez gets some time in center and begins to make the Haren trade look very good for the A’s.
On the mound: Blanton and Harden showcase themselves and inflate their value just long enough for Beane to deal them away to Cincinnati and New York respectively.
What Should Happen This Season
The A’s have remorselessly raised the white flag even before their arrival in Japan for their opener against Boston. I couldn’t commend the organization more for the manner in which they are doing this. They have a loyal and faithful fan base that fully understands the parameters in how they conduct business and unlike their cross-bay rivals, who prefer promotional band-aids to positional player development, are on the right track with a clear vision.
(I also like their 'we are going to suck' marketing strategy better than the Giants, where they feature clips from their Swingin' A's glory years. Much better than defining 'gamer' ad nauseum.)
Five biggest questions
1. Can Harden stay healthy long enough for Beane to trade him to the Yankees?
2. How will the veterans respond to this rebuilding season?
3. Will Cust shake off the Mitchell Report?
4. Can this team sneak in 70 wins?
5. How long must fans endure Tarpland A’s jokes before the fruits of the winter’s trades arrive in Oakland/Fremont?
Prediction: 67-95
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
