| Christopher Reina. 21st March, 2008 - 5:02 pm
 There was a time (2004) when I believed the stars would align for an anniversary repeat of special events (Giants winning 1954 World Series). Bitterly, the Giants were eliminated from playoff contention on the final day of the season, and their W.S.-less streak continues; however, with 2008, the Cubs mark the centennial anniversary of their last World Series win.
It has even been 18 years now since the Cubs won the World Series in Taking Care Of Business, and there appears to me an inevitability that it will happen with this current talented but somewhat ragtag core.
2007 Record: 85-77
2007 Pythagorean Record: 87-75
Team FIC Batting: 6.50 per game (17th overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.86 per game (5th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Cubs were middle of the pack good enough to score sufficient runs for their very good pitching staff to win 85 games.
Derrek Lee had a healthy 2007 with the second .900+ OPS season of his career. He hit 22 homeruns (25.8 AB/HR), which is down significantly from his 2005 when he his 46 (12.9 AB/HR).
Aramis Ramirez followed up his new contract with another very solid season although his homerun production was down, as well. He had a .310/.366/.549 at the plate and also played the best defense of his career.
Alfonso Soriano wasn’t worth the contract in his first season (-51% Reina Value), but that was largely due to a couple of injuries that limited him to just 135 games. He settled in nicely during the month of September, hitting 14 homeruns and batting .320. Surprisingly, he couldn’t quite settle in at Wrigley Field, posting a .794 OPS compared to 1.003 on the road. He did lead the team in homers (33) by a comfortable margin.
Even Carlos Zambrano had a higher average than Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, and Ronny Cedeno among others.
On the mound: The Cubs had a very good 4.04 ERA and 1,211 strikeouts (first and second in the NL respectively).
Zambrano secured his extension and had a subpar (by his standards) 2007 with a 3.95 ERA in 216.3 innings. He struckout 177, which was second on the team behind Rich Hill.
Hill had a 3.92 ERA and in what was a true breakout season.
Ted Lilly made his free agent contract look like a wise move by hardening up his mental game and posting a 3.83 ERA and a phenomenal K/BB ratio of 174/55.
Ryan Dempster was their closer and was adequate enough to save 28 games. Carlos Marmol was awesome, striking out 96 batters in 69.3 innings on his way to a 1.43 ERA. Bobby Howry and Michael Wuertz each ate a lot of innings in the sub-3.50 ERA territory.
What Happened In The Offseason
I have been more excited to write my Cubs’ preview than any other club, and I’ve been holding off in hopes of the Brian Roberts trade finally coming through, but I’ve finally given up on waiting.
Addressing their largely undynamic lineup, the Cubs signed outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. He has struggled in the spring but as a heady line drive hitter, he should be a .300 batting/20 homerun performer.
They also signed Jon Lieber, who spent four seasons with the Cubs (1999-2002).
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Soriano finds his comfort zone at Wrigley and has a 40/30 season.
Lee and Ramirez each hit 30+ homers and bat over .300.
Fukudome and Pie shake off the bad spring and become essential components of their lineup.
Geovany Soto picks up where he left off last September (.389/.433/.667) and becomes a top-five catcher.
On the mound: Zambrano has a fringe Cy Young season while Lilly throws back-to-back sub-4.00 ERA seasons for the first time in his career by continuing to maintain a very good K/BB ration.
Hill strikes out 200 batters, and Dempster has better production than the last time he was a starter back in 2002 when he had a 5.38 ERA.
Kerry Wood has a healthy 2008 and becomes a reliable closer.
What Should Happen This Season
The Cubs are easily the favorites in the NL Central but will need to keep a close eye on the Brewers.
Their lineup is capable of scoring 800 runs especially if they hit more homeruns.
Pitching is always fragile, and it isn’t realistic to fully count on Lilly and Hill to be as good as they were in 2007, but I am anticipating Zambrano being among the best two or three pitchers in the NL this season.
Five biggest questions
1. Will the starting rotation be as steadily good as they were in 2007?
2. Can Wood be a reliable closer?
3. Will Fukudome be good enough to bat third?
4. Will Soriano’s production decrease if they bat him out of the leadoff slot?
5. When will Brian Roberts finally don a Cubs' uniform?
Prediction: 90-72
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
