| Christopher Reina. 24th March, 2008 - 5:32 pm
 Those who breathlessly shouted that the Yankees were dead in late June and early July ended up being laughably wrong in October when the franchise was playing postseason baseball for the 13th consecutive season.
For a team that won 94 games, is as talented as the Yankees, and has upgraded their pitching staff via the development of their farm system, expectations are pleasantly low.
2007 Record: 94-68
2007 Pythagorean Record: 97-65
Team FIC Batting: 11.86 per game (1st overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.20 per game (17th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: The Alex Rodriguez Ferris wheel was at a peak in 2007, as he carried the club throughout the summer to the tune of .314/.422/.645 with 54 homeruns. He was easily the MVP and easily the leader in season FIC with 399, amazingly giving him a Reina Value of +3%, since teammate Jason Giambi had a higher salary.
But the postseason song remained the same as he had a respectable .820 OPS but struck out six costly times. He strikes out once every 4.32 plate appearances in the playoffs versus 5.66 for his career.
Jorge Posada was the most dependable Yankee not named A-Rod, hitting an astonishing .338/.426/.543. In a weak year, Posada responded with the best season of his career, even better than when he was third in MVP voting back in 2003.
Derek Jeter hit over .300 for the third consecutive season and the ninth time in his career, but he wasn’t nearly as productive as he was when he was the MVP runner-up in 2006, although the dip wasn’t drastic enough to put him too far below his career averages. His OPS was 60 points lower, stole 19 fewer bases, drove in 24 fewer runs, and scored 16 fewer runs.
Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui shook off slow starts to end the season with lines of .283/.369/.445 and .285/.67/.488 respectively. Johnny Damon’s OPS dropped nearly a hundred points (mostly because of slugging) as his homer total dropped from 24 to 12. Jason Giambi was limited to 83 games, mostly of DH duty, hitting just .236 with a .356 on-base and .433 slugging.
Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera continued their promising development in 2007. Cano hit .306/.353/.488 with 19 homeruns, showing yet again that he will one day bat in the middle of the Yankee lineup. Cabrera hit .273/.327/.391 while taking over centerfield on a permanent basis. His season totals were tempered by an atrocious September when he hit .180/.236/.220.
On the mound: The Yankees battled a host of injuries to their staff and finished the season with the 8th best ERA (4.49) in the AL.
Andy Pettitte stayed healthy, anchoring the rotation by making a team-high 34 starts and posting a 4.05 ERA over 215.3 innings.
Chien-Ming Wang had a 3.70 ERA despite striking out only 104 batters.
Mike Mussina followed up his excellent 2006 (3.51 ERA/1.110 WHIP) by turning in a 5.15 ERA over 27 starts.
Roger Clemens was painted as the savior of the staff in June, but he won just six of his 17 starts while throwing a 4.18 ERA.
Kei Igawa was categorically a disaster with his 6.90 ERA as a starter over 61.1 innings.
Phil Hughes was throwing a no-hitter before suffering a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined the majority of the season.
Mariano Rivera wasn’t the best closer in the game, but he did throw 71.3 innings with a 3.15 ERA, the fifth consecutive season he has thrown 70 or more.
With the combination of a one-of-a-kind first name and a stat line of 0.38 ERA, 12.75 K/9 over 24.0 late season innings, Joba Chamberlain created an imposing phenomenon that spread as quickly as you can say ‘Vampire Weekend’.
What Happened In The Offseason
The first winter of the Hank and Hal regime was chocked full of sloppily handled situations that led to an eventual preservation of the status quo.
Rodriguez opted out during Game 4 of the World Series, and his Yankee career was swiftly deemed over. But the good folks at Goldman Sachs intervened, and Rodriguez was re-signed with the Yankees for $275 million over 10 seasons.
Posada and Rivera were re-signed to four-year and three-year deals respectively.
A-Rod protégé Cabrera was dangled in trade talks for Johan Santana along with Hughes/Ian Kennedy, but the crosstown rival Mets eventually completed the expensive deal.
Finally and not insignificantly, the Joe Torre-era unceremoniously came to an end. He turned down a $2.5 million pay reduction (down to $5 million annually) and eventually ended up with the Dodgers for $15 million over three seasons.
His replacement was not groomed successor Don Mattingly but Joe Girardi, who was fired after one season in Florida where he was named Manager of the Year.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate:
The lineup becomes more consistently balanced on a daily basis than it was last season. Rodriguez hits 45 homeruns while reducing his strikeouts, and Abreu and Matsui chip in 25 apiece.
Cano takes another big leap forward with his power production while Jeter and Damon return to their 2006 forms.
They score another 950 runs and trail only the Tigers in total offense.
On the mound:
Even though the purported big three is being labeled the difference makers for the club this season, I think Pettitte will be about the same as he was last season, and Mussina should be much improved.
Wang, the opening day starter, has become one of the most 3.65 reliable pitchers in baseball.
Hughes and Ian Kennedy round out the rotation, and they will be predictably inconsistent from game to game but should each have low-4.00 ERAs.
Chamberlain will begin the season in the bullpen, and I have a suspicion he will remain there for the duration of his career and become the Yankees' bullpen.
Rivera doesn’t return to his sub-2.00 ERA dominance but remains 95 percentile dependable.
What Should Happen This Season
The Yankees are listed third or fourth by most observers when listing the top teams of the American League. Unlike most seasons over the past decade, the sheer superiority of their talent in comparison to other teams doesn’t immediately present itself on paper. They will have to earn every victory and, like last year, really battle to make the playoffs, and there isn’t a player on the club that is taking that for granted.
As they have become all too familiar with since 2001, the playoffs are a crapshoot, so whether it’s bugs in Cleveland or blowing a 3-0 lead to Boston in the 2004 ALCS, anything can happen once it begins.
Five biggest questions
1. Will Girardi strike the right tone with the Yankees’ veteran club?
2. How well will the Big 3 pitch?
3. Will the non-Rodriguez portion of the lineup be more consistent?
4. Is there any chance the Blue Jays/Devil Rays can push the Yanks to third place?
5. Is A-Rod’s postseason struggles beyond habitual?
Prediction: 94-68
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
