| Christopher Reina. 24th March, 2008 - 6:55 pm
 The Phillies are sort of like the Golden State Warriors of the National League; a very likeable offensive style without enough substance on defense (pitching) to be a real threat. Their late season charge to steal the NL East from the Mets was much like the Warriors’ upset of the Mavericks in the 2007 NBA Playoffs.
Can the Phillies make it to the postseason with Philadelphia expectations at an all-time high?
2007 Record: 89-73
2007 Pythagorean Record: 87-75
Team FIC Batting: 9.80 per game (3rd overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 9.33 per game (13th overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: Jimmy Rollins took home the NL MVP, marking the second consecutive season a member of the Phillies has won the honor. Rollins had a historically balanced season, hitting 30 homeruns, 38 doubles, 20 triples and stealing 41 bases. He had a 302 season FIC and a Reina Value of +113%.
Before breaking his wrist (his 25 HBP led the NL), Chase Utley was making his own argument to be the NL MVP. He had a line of .332/.410/.566 with 22 homeruns and 48 doubles.
Ryan Howard had a remarkably quiet 47 homeruns (one every 11.26 at bats), following his MVP 2006 with another very solid season. His OPS dropped 100 points from 1.084 to .976.
Aaron Rowand had a career season with a .889 OPS and 27 homeruns while Pat Burrell did what he seemingly does every season, hit 30 homeruns with an OPS around .900. Shane Victorino it .281/.347/.423 and stole 37 bases.
On the mound: The Phillies had the 4th worst ERA in the NL (4.73) and gave up a staggering 198 homeruns.
They were led (quite easily) by Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick, who combine to be about as old as Jamie Moyer.
Hamels followed up on his promising 2006 rookie season by dropping his ERA from 4.08 to 3.39, his WHIP from 1.247 to 1.124, and his K/9 IP to 8.69.
Kendrick was called up in June from Double-A and gave the Phillies 20 much needed starts. He had a 3.87 ERA and a 1.273 WHIP over 121 innings.
The remainder of their staff was decidedly mediocre or worse. Moyer pitched 199.3 innings, but had an ERA of 5.01. Adam Eaton threw 161.7 innings of 6.29 ball. Jon Lieber made just 12 starts and had a 4.73 ERA. Freddy Garcia and Kyle Lohse spent the majority of the season injuryed.
In the bullpen, Brett Myers became their closer, saving 21 games after Tom Gordon went down to injury. Like the rotation, the Phillies’ bullpen was chalked full of high ERA's with Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero being their only real successes.
What Happened In The Offseason
The lineup took a decided hit when Aaron Rowand signed with the Giants in free agency.
The Phillies made a very competitive offer to Mike Lowell, but the World Series MVP returned to Boston and the club ended up with Pedro Feliz from San Francisco.
They also acquired Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and minor league third baseman Mike Costanzo. By bringing in Lidge, assuming he can stay sane and healthy, they not only upgrade their bullpen but also their rotation by moving Myers back to starting duties.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: Philadelphia has their third consecutive MVP, this time it is Utley as he continues to reduce his strikeout rate and increases his power production.
Rollins doesn’t have another MVP season, but is as consistent as he’s been in each of the past four season, with 20 homeruns, 40 stolen bases and 125 runs.
Howard belts another 50 homeruns and improves his on-base percentage.
Burrell has another Burrell caliber season, and Feliz increases his homerun production with the move to Citizen’s Bank Park. Victorino adjusts well to centerfield and continues to improve his power.
On the mound: Beyond Hamels and Myers, the Phillies rotation is decidedly mediocre in Moyer and Eaton and unpredictable in Kendrick.
The front end should be pretty solid, though, assuming Hamels’ elbow stays healthy and Myers channels his intensity for good.
Kendrick has struggled this spring but should be an above average CBP pitcher due to his ability to induce groundballs.
Lidge will begin the season on the DL, and his makeup doesn’t seem particularly well suited for Philadelphia when he returns. His stint with the club could end up being very short-lived.
What Should Happen This Season
I would like to see the Phillies get a longer crack at the postseason this year than they did against the Rockies in 2007, but outside of their lineup, there are too many questions to be too bullish on their chances.
They will score plenty of runs again, that’s beyond debate, but the lack of depth on the mound will make outplaying the Mets and Braves extremely difficult.
Five biggest questions
1. How will Myers adjust to becoming a starter again?
2. When will Lidge be ready?
3. Can the back end of their rotation give them more quality starts than most are expecting?
4. Will Rollins’ production remain the same?
5. How soon before Charlie Manuel is on the hotseat?
Prediction: 84-78
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
