| Andrew Perna. 18th September, 2008 - 12:47 pm
 Barring an unforeseen slump on the North Side of Chicago or an uncanny surge by the Astros or Marlins over the last eleven days of the regular season, the Mets, Phillie,s and Brewers will be fighting for two postseason berths in the National League.
Heading into Thursday's action Philadelphia held a half-game lead over New York for the lead in the NL East, while the Mets had their own half-game edge over the Brewers for the Wild Card. These three teams, separated by mere half-games, will undoubtedly shuffle positions over the next two-hundred or so hours.
When the Brewers placed all their chips on the 2008 season, trading for rent-a-race pitcher CC Sabathia at the beginning of July, they were less than five games behind the Cubs for the lead in the NL Central and trailed the Cardinals by a mere two games in the Wild Card race.
One month later, on Aug. 1, they caught up to St. Louis and stood just four games back of Chicago. In short, and for the second season in a row, it looked like the playoffs were coming to Milwaukee for the first time since Ronald Reagan was in office.
On Sept. 1, the Brewers held a six-game edge over the Cardinals in the Wild Card race, while still standing within striking distance (4.5 games) of the Cubs for the division title. Meanwhile, the Mets and Phillies were three and five games back respectively as they battled in the NL East.
Now, eleven weeks after Milwaukee acquired Sabathia, Chicago is a distant eight games ahead in the division, and both the Mets and Phillies have narrow leads in the Wild Card race.
The Brewers’ failure to keep pace with the leaders in the NL can’t be placed on Sabathia, who is an impressive 9-1 with a sparkling 1.82 ERA in fourteen starts for Milwaukee.
They are 12-2 in his fourteen starts, a remarkable number when you consider that they are 27-29 with other starters on the mound over the same period of time.
Ben Sheets, who started in July’s All-Star game at Yankee Stadium, has been strong as well, but after leaving a start Wednesday with an elbow injury, that apparently has been bothering him since August, the remainder of his season has been placed in doubt.
Sheets, 13-8 with a 2.98 ERA this season, is 4-6 with a 3.18 ERA since Sabathia arrived from Cleveland. As a team, the Brewers are 7-7 in Ben’s last fourteen starts.
Milwaukee isn’t a poor hitting ball club, but you’d imagine that with an ERA like Sheets, you’d have a better record then he currently does. Perhaps it’s the inexperience of having such heavy expectations on their shoulders, as the Brewers are just 4-12 in September, a record that led to the sudden firing of Manager Ned Yost on Monday.
It's worth noting that the Brewers where in the race to win the NL Central down the stretch in 2007, but they were more of revelation than a team that expected to win. Trading for Sabathia put everyone in Milwaukee on notice, it's 2008 or not for a while.
They have scored an average of just three runs per game in September, while scoring 4.63 over the full 152 games they have played so far this season.
The Brewers rank fourteenth in runs scored and fourth in home runs, but have the fifth-lowest ERA in the Majors. Living by the long ball is a difficult way to make, and advance deep into the playoffs, but their pitching has often made up for their offensive shortcomings in 2008.
Even if Sabathia continues pitching extraordinarily and Sheets is able to return to the mound effectively, remaining starters Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra and Dave Bush will have to up their efforts in order to give Milwaukee a chance to challenge for a postseason berth heading into the final weekend of the season.
Milwaukee’s Schedule
Thu, Sept. 18 – @ Chicago
Fri, Sept. 19 – @ Cincinnati
Sat, Sept. 20 – @ Cincinnati
Sun, Sept. 21 – @ Cincinnati
Tue, Sept. 23 – vs. Pittsburgh
Wed, Sept. 24 – vs. Pittsburgh
Thu, Sept. 25 – vs. Pittsburgh
Fri, Sept. 26 – vs. Chicago
Sat, Sept. 27 – vs. Chicago
Sun, Sept. 28 – vs. Chicago
Both the Reds and Pirates having been playing out the string for quite some time now, and the Cubs aren’t likely to have anything to play for in the final series of the regular season, but Milwaukee's ten-game schedule won’t be a walk in the park.
The Brewers have a combined 6-3 record against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh since the All-Star break, but are just 1-5 against Chicago since mid-July.
Those six contests against the Reds/Pirates could be ‘trap’ games, but a lot will depend on whether or not Dusty Baker and John Russell are able to motivate their troops to play spoiler with the offseason roughly a week away.
Chicago will also play a huge role in Milwaukee’s chase, with Lou Piniella holding the key to the final weekend.
Will he choose to rest some of his regulars heading into the playoffs? Will he skip over guys like Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden to ensure their health? Or will he put his best lineup out on the field in an attempt to keep the ‘rival’ Brewers from extending their season?
1982 seems like a long time ago, and it is, but if Milwaukee can’t string together some victories over the next few days, they’ll be headed for yet another early offseason.
Just like in each of the last twenty-five years.
Andrew Perna is a Senior Writer for RealGM. Please feel free to contact him via e-mail with comments or questions on this piece: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. |
