| Christopher Reina. 7th October, 2008 - 2:18 pm
 2008 Record: 89-73
2008 Pythagorean Record: 89-73
FIC Rank: 3rd
2nd in NL East
2008 Payroll: $137.8 million, 2nd in MLB, 1st in NL
Cost per win: $1.548 million, 27th in MLB, 16th in NL
Mets Season Review
There wasn't a historical blown lead but not making the playoffs for the second consecutive season hurts every bit as much, if not more than 2007. The Mets were eliminated from the playoffs on the final day of the season and the final game at Shea Stadium.
They were 16-19 in one-run games and lost six out of their last nine games.
The quartet of Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado all played in at least 159 games, the only time that has been done by any team in modern history. They were very fortunate to get so many games out of these four cornerstones, but would they have perhaps produced better if they occasionally had a day off?
Most troubling and systematic of the Mets' problems at the plate is how ineffective they were late in games. The Mets had a .685 OPS after the 6th inning, which was 27th in baseball.
But the Mets scored enough runs to win many more games than their record showed as the bullpen blew 29 saves.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Brian Schneider (572nd, 48, -92%) had his best OPS (.706) since 2005 and was better than Paul Lo Duca in 2007, but was limited to 110 games. He hit a very bad .187/..291/.200 against lefties in his 87 plate appearances.
Ramon Castro (802nd, 19, -80%) was unsurprisingly unable to repeat his 2007 OPS of .887, hitting .245/.312/.441 in 2008. He played much better in the first half and was almost entirely ineffective in August and September. He did hit, however, really well with two outs and runners in scoring position (1.365 OPS and 10 RBIs in 17 at bats).
First Base
Carlos Delgado (69th, 205, -31%) decided to start hitting again following the firing of Willie Randolph and he finished with 38 homers and a slugging percentage over .500 after posting a .448 season in 2007, but he went 2-for-17 during the Mets' final four games of the season.
Delgado's days of having a .900+ OPS are behind him (he's had nine of them and two of those nine were over 1.000). In 2009 he is unlikely to hit 38 homers again, but should hit more than the 24 he had in 07.
The Mets had the financial luxury to pick up their option on him and even though it won't be an albatross, his production will not meet the contract.
Second Base
Luis Castillo (374th, 81, -77%) made Omar Minaya look especially bad with his .305 slugging percentage, one of just six players to get 250 at bats and slug so poorly. Other than a productive May (.880 OPS), his 87 games were practically a complete waste and he hit .111/.304/.139 in 46 plate appearances in September.
Damion Easley (565th, 48, -56%) couldn't recreate his resurgent 2007, hitting for an OPS of .692 after .824 a season ago.
Third Base
David Wright (12th, 275, +205%) once again had another excellent season, further cementing his status as one of the best hitters in the game. He hit .302/.390/.524 which is very good, though down from his .325/.416/.546 in 2007. His inability to get Daniel Murphy in from third base during the September 24th loss to the Cubs will plague his offseason. He hit for an OPS of just .792 with two outs and runners in scoring position and questions about his ability to produce in the clutch will continue to surround him just as it does the crosstown third baseman until he proves something different.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes (36th, 242, +206%) had an up season, hitting .295/.358/.475, but he still wasn't that absolute MVP candidate he can be. He was fairly consistent throughout the season though bad Aprils and Septembers book-ended his season. Reyes scored 88 of his 113 runs in Mets' wins.
Left Field
Moises Alou (856th, 14, -95%) did what he does seemingly year in, year out, but did it even more exquisitely this season. He hit for an average of .347, but was limited to just 49 at bats. The Mets can afford to waste $7.5 million on a player, but spending $138,888 per plate appearance on a left fielder really hurts when there is not a legitimate backup plan in place. Minaya could have surely dealt for Manny Ramirez or even signed Barry Bonds, either of which would have been better than praying/relying on the below alternatives.
Fernando Tatis (440th, 69, +19%) came out of the MLB semi-retirement home to hit .297/.369/.484 in 273 at bats for the Mets. He was an entirely different player at Shea than he was on the road, hitting .954 and .742 respectively.
Daniel Murphy (664th, 35, +3%) was the lefty replacement hitter du jour for the Mets and he did well against both righties and lefties and finished the season batting .313/.397/.473 after his August 2nd call up. The Mets were 18-12 in his starts, but he struck out seven times over the final week of the season with only four hits in 26 plate appearances.
As a collective unit, Mets' left fielders had an OPS of .730, which was 22nd in the majors, though the Rays and Angels were both worse and made the playoffs.
Center Field
Carlos Beltran (9th, 289, -11%) struck out less and walked more in 1998 while his slugging dipped for the second straight season, down to .500. He was the Mets' best hitter down the stretch, hitting for an OPS of 1.086 in September, but for the season he had an OPS of just .602 with two outs and RISP. The gap between Beltran as a righty (1.015/17.8 at bats per HR) and lefty (.818/25 at bats per HR) continues to widen from his career totals.
Right Field
Ryan Church (468th, 63, -60%) came over in the Lastings Milledge trade and had decent numbers, but far from ideal for a corner outfielder. He slugged just .439, down from his .526 in 2006 with the Nationals. He also was hurt for most of the summer.
Endy Chavez (639th, 39, -78%) slugged just .330 this season, down from .380 last season and .431 in 2006. The Mets were 26-30 in his starts and a .308 OBP with absolutely no power is a combination good teams can't afford.
Starting Pitching
The Mets were incredibly fortunate they finally pulled off the blockbuster trade for Johan Santana (8th, 290, -2%), because their rotation behind him had an incredibly disappointing season.
Santana was first in the NL in ERA (2.53) and innings (234.1) and second in strikeouts (206). He was worth every last penny of the nearly $17 million he made in his first year with the Mets, especially over the final two months of the season. His three-hit, complete game shutout of the Marlins on the last Saturday of the season kept the Mets alive and should have been an achievement talked about in Queens for many years to come, but it will eventually be lost in the shallow disappointment of narrowly missing the playoffs for two consecutive seasons.
Oliver Perez (77th, 198, +54%) had a 4.22 ERA, which was up from his 3.56 in 2007. Perez 'deserved' to make $10M in 2008 and should fetch about that per year in free agency making his return to the Mets unlikely. His strikeout rate dropped slightly and his K/BB rate dropped more dramatically from 2.20 to 1.71, leading the NL in walks. He had a 5.79 ERA in September and though he only got one decision, the Mets were 3-3 in his starts including losses in three of his last four.
Mike Pelfrey (106th, 186, +317%) finally delivered on the promise that made him a 9th overall pick in 2005 by throwing 200.7 innings with an ERA of 3.72. Joe Saunders was the only other starter to have an ERA under 3.72 with a K/9 under 5.00. Since 1990, only two starters have a career ERA under 4.00 with a K/9 under 5.00, Bob Tewksbury and Zane Smith. Even location pitchers like Tom Glavine, Jimmy Key and Doug Drabek were in the 5's. The margin of error for pitchers of Pelfrey's type are very small as that BAbip can't always be relied upon to be a very good .307.
John Maine (175th, 147, +1,122%) came into his final start of 2008 with a 3.82 ERA and left the field with a 4.18 ERA after giving up eight earned runs in 5.2 innings, so that number feels a little unfair. That August 23rd start was his last one due to a shoulder injury. The Mets need him healthy enough to throw 175-210 innings in 2009.
Pedro Martinez (326th, 93, -83%) reached the 20 start plateau, but had an ERA of 5.61 as he continues to lose velocity. Overall he pitched better in the second half, but he was 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in September. He currently has the best ERA+ (154) in history amongst starters and he will continue to put that mark in jeopardy as he intends to pitch in 2009, though it more than likely won't be with the Mets (Santana is second to Pedro in this category amongst active starters).
Relief Pitching
The relievers had a 5.02 ERA in the second half compared to 3.81 during the first half and famously blew 29 saves.
Billy Wagner (212th, 130, -58%) had a 2.30 ERA in his third season with the Mets, but he blew seven saves which was a career high. His season ended on August 2nd and the $10 million he is owed for 2009 will be a completely wasted cost since his contract is not insured.
They will be tempted to sign Francisco Rodriguez, but 2.24 ERA doesn't look quite as good as his 62 saves and there will be no denying he will be overpaid. Brian Fuentes is the better value as a closer.
Aaron Heilman (437th, 70, -19%) had the worst ERA of his career (5.21) after three seasons of an ERA of 3.62 or better. Lefties hit for an OPS of .991 against him compared to .652 for righties. The Mets should consider finally moving him to the rotation as he's wanted for many years now.
Pedro Feliciano (487th, 61, -32%) had an atrocious July (11.12 ERA), bad September (5.40) and was fairly decent during the remaining months. He faced too many righties (118 plate appearances vs. 119 against lefties) as he expectedly struggled against batters on that side of the plate (1.014).
Joe Smith (410th, 74, +180%) had another fine season, posting a 3.55 ERA. He was more comfortable pitching at home.
Duaner Sanchez (434th, 70, +18%) returned from missing the entire 2007 season with a 4.32 ERA, up significantly from his 2.60 in 2006. Like so many other Mets' relievers, he fared much better at home and in the first half.
Scott Schoenewis (591st, 45, -89%) had a 3.34 ERA, but predictably was awful against righties and on the road.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM |
