| Christopher Reina. 13th October, 2008 - 7:54 pm
 2008 Record: 81-81
2008 Pythagorean Record: 85-77
FIC Rank: 15th
3rd in AL Central
2008 Payroll: $78.97 million, 16th in MLB, 8th in AL
Cost per win: $975k, 12th in MLB, 6th in AL
Indians Season Review
A few days after the gnats carried away Joba Chamberlain and after they won Game 4 of the ALCS in 2007 to push their series to 3-1, I bought a Cleveland Indians' hat for myself. I had found a special place in my rooting interest heart for the Indians since Manny Ramirez was a young right fielder and they were one game away from redeeming those teams of 95, 97, and 54. But it has been all downhill for the Tribe since I bought that hat, and even though I'm not narcissistic enough to read much into it, I still feel extremely guilty about buying that hat.
Despite their horrible start to 2008, they went 34-21 in August and September while finishing just 7.5 (essentially 7) games behind the White Sox. They were a couple of wins better than that right off the top, and it begs the question of what would have happened had they stuck it out with CC Sabathia. Draft pick compensation for free agents has become so valuable that keeping him around for the entire season could have possibly resulted in a comeback run to the playoffs in a chase with the White Sox and Twins.
The injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez made the lineup to middle of the road beyond Grady Sizemore to seriously compete, and although the Indians do spend some money, they must spend wisely and keep risk at a minimum.
They are not too far away, and Matt LaPorta is much closer to the big leagues than that compensatory pick that would have been selected in June.
Despite my hat, the Indians won't be down for long.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Victor Martinez (593rd, 45, -91%) missed much of 2008 because of elbow surgery, which ended a four-year streak of good health for him. Martinez will be 30 at the start of Spring Training this season, and although it is doubtful he'll be in the high .800s OPS again, he should at least slug .450 and have an OBP of .365.
Kelly Shoppach (510th, 58, +24%) had a chance to play everyday with Martinez out, and he had a very good season, slugging .517 with 21 homers and 27 doubles. He had a great second half and was excellent against lefties.
However, the Indians want to rotate Martinez and Shoppach around; they will send out an above average hitting catcher on a daily basis.
First Base
Ryan Garko (221st, 128, +900%) had four disappointing months to start the season but finished strong. His slugging numbers were down 79 points from .483 to .404,and he was significantly better against lefties. He did improve his K/BB rate, but over the past two seasons, he is 18th in OPS (.795) out of 26 first basemen who have at least 700 plate appearances.
Second Base
Asdrubal Cabrera (492nd, 60, +65%) had a nightmare first half in which he was banged up, but when he returned in July, the Indians saw a similar '07 version of him which got everyone in Cleveland so excited. He hit .416/.455/.571 in 91 plate appearances in September to end the season on a good note. He is significantly better from the right side, with a .957/.644 split.
Jamey Carroll (421st, 72, -53%) played much more second and third than anyone was expecting. He didn't put up the kind of numbers he did in 2006 with Colorado, but hitting .271/.355/.346 is something the Indians could live with from their fill-in utility man.
Third Base
Casey Blake (277th, 106, -51%) has been credited as being a big part of the Dodgers' second half success, but he actually was significantly better during his 325 at bats with the Tribe. He was having one of his finest seasons before he was dealt during their minor sell off.
Andy Marte (1278th, -16, 0%) was once again one of the most highly touted prospects in baseball, but the chances for it happening for him are quickly diminishing. He hit just .221/.268/.315 in 235 at bats. There are only 18 players who are ranked behind him in season FIC.
Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (217th, 129, +70%) had his best season since 2005, getting his OPS over .800 again. He reduced his strikeouts, but his walks dropped, as well. He hit significantly better away from Progressive Field (.876/.729).
Left Field
Ben Francisco (330th, 92, +413%) unexpectedly started 71 games in left for the Indians. He hit .266/.332/.438, but trailed off significantly towards the end of the season.
David Delluci (601st, 44, -89%) hasn't been able to duplicate the success of 2005 and 2006 that made him attractive to the Indians. He hit for an OPS of .712 almost exclusively against righties.
Center Field
Grady Sizemore (23rd, 254, +377%) hit a career high 33 homers and also stole a career high 38 bases. If I were to start a team from scratch tomorrow and had the third selection, I'd choose Sizemore after the first two guys picked Pujols and A-Rod. He is a five-tool player who keeps getting better, and I think he'll really thrive once he no longer hits leadoff (Indians had the worst third place hitters in the MLB in 2008). He's been the best centerfielder (over Beltran) in the game since 2005.
Right Field
Shin-Soo Choo (188th, 139, +1,181%) all of a sudden became the Indians' best slugger (.549) during the 2008 season. His 1.038 post-All Star break OPS puts him 6th behind Manny, Pujols, Teixeira, Quentin, and Mora.
Franklin Gutierrez (605th, 43, +1%) had a 100 point drop in OPS from the 2007 season as his slugging went from .472 to .383 while his OBP went from a bad .318 to a scary .307. I was duped by an April Fool's joke that said Gutierrez had been dealt to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez, and in hindsight that probably would have been a bad trade for San Francisco. But Gutierrez did finish strongly with an OPS of .878 in August and .842 in September.
Designated Hitter
Travis Hafner (909th, 11, -95%) had a .659 slugging percentage in 2006, and it dropped all the way down to .323 in 2008. There have only been 83 seasons in history in which a player has slugged .659 or better, and those seasons are peppered with multiples from Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Wiliams, Jimmy Foxx, etc. so I think it's safe to assume that there has never been a drop like that in history.
Unless that shoulder can somehow recover, this might be the end of the line for Pronk.
Starting Pitching
Cliff Lee (5th, 298, +366%) and his 2.54 ERA, which fell from 6.29 in 2007 is Hafner in reverse. A 3.75 drop in ERA from one season to another is extraordinary and historical. There have only been 85 seasons in which a pitcher has had an ERA of 6.29 or higher while throwing 97+ innings, so Lee is actually in a more rarefied territory up there than the 843 seasons in which a pitcher has thrown for an ERA 2.54 or less.
The extreme consistency of Lee's season is, perhaps, most impressive. His 0.96 ERA in April is, of course, out of this world, but his steadiness throughout the season makes me believe that we can see more dominant outings from Lee next season.
CC Sabathia (2nd, 337, +113%) left the Indians with a 3.83 ERA and 6-8 record although he did strikeout one man per inning. But when his season tally was counted, he ended up not too far behind Pujols in season FIC. There are a number of what if's involved with Sabathia dating back to last October, but Mark Shaprio did well for himself acquiring Matt LaPorta, who has a .959 OPS in 477 minor league at bats and should be a legitimate big league thumper in a season or two.
Fausto Carmona (287th, 103, +528%) was unable to have a middle of the rotation follow-up to his Cy Young caliber 2007. His ERA climbed to 5.44 from 3.06, as he simply couldn't keep runners off the bases. Lefties lit him up, and he got progressively worse as the season went on since as his first half ended with a very good 3.10 ERA despite a horrible strikeout rate.
Jeremy Sowers (367th, 83, +285%) still was unable to reclaim his stuff that made him a young up and coming pitcher with a 3.57 ERA back in 2006. His ERA decreased to 5.58 from 6.42, but that's clearly still a long way away from being a serviceable starter. He was better in the second half but far from spectacular.
Aaron Laffey (409th, 74, +188%) was brilliant early in the season (1.59 ERA through his first six starts), but he then became like a box of chocolates with his inconsistency. However, he is a young talented lefty who pitches to contact and should have a nice 2009.
Scott Lewis (659th, 36, +3%) had just four starts as a September call up but won the AL Rookie Pitcher of the Month as he only gave up seven earned runs in 24 innings.
Relief Pitching
Jensen Lewis (320th, 94, +447%) finished the season as Cleveland's closer and led the team with 13 saves. He is only 24, but pitches to contact far too much for an ideal closer. Lewis improved as the season went on, growing into it and having a 1.54 ERA during the month of September.
Rafael Perez (325th, 93, +392%) wasn't unhittable like he was in 2007, but he did increase his K/9 rate up to 10.14. He was third in the AL with 25 holds.
Rafael Betancourt (405th, 75, -45%) proved to be somewhat of a one-year wonder as his 1.47 ERA of 2007 ballooned to 5.07. Most of that ERA damage was during the first half as he straightened out a bit as the season progressed, but the 33-year-old is much more 2003-06 than he is 07.
Masa Kobayashi (460th, 65, -72%) has a first half/second half split of 3.05/10.32, which gives Eric Wedge little cause for optimism in the new season. |
