| Christopher Reina. 17th October, 2008 - 7:09 pm
 Due to a messy divorce and a talent drain in which they will be forced to rebuild, the Padres are attempting to turn Jake Peavy into this season's Johan Santana.
Like Santana, Peavy is a Cy Young winner, but he is far closer to Dan Haren in terms of talent.
Peavy is an unquestioned ace on most staffs but is not a transcendent ace like a Santana or CC Sabathia. Peavy is at least in part a product of Petco Park, as well as a weak hitting National League West.
His career home/away split is the first thing to examine as he is more than a run better at home (2.77 to 3.80) than on the road. That 2.77 home ERA even includes a 3.23 ERA over 136.1 innings during his first two big league seasons at Qualcomm Stadium, which was far less pitcher friendly.
In 541.2 career innings at Petco, Peavy has a 2.66 ERA.
The split this season was even more dramatic as Peavy had a 1.74 ERA at home and 4.28 on the road.
But while he is not in the Santana category, he is 17th in ERA+ between 2002 and 2008, which puts him ahead of Ben Sheets, Matt Cain, Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, and A.J. Burnett. The difference made by Petco is very clear here because if adjusted for straight ERA, then he bumps up to 3.25, which brings him to 7th.
To be sure, though, it isn't as if Peavy just pitches to contact, and he lets his park swallow up long flyballs- he is 8th during that time span in K/9 with a mark of 8.96.
He is a difficult pitcher to get good contact against because of the way he easily hits both sides of the plate and the active movement both, tail and sink, to his fastball.
Peavy was a little homer prone in 2008 on the road, yielding 13 in 13 starts (one every 22.4 at bats). His homer totals have always been a bit deciving because of Petco as he gave up one homer every 86.5 at bats at home in 2008. His career splits are 27.4 at bats on the road and 52.8 at home.
Until 2008 when he began having elbow problems, Peavy has been durable and has thrown at least 200 innings in the previous three seasons.
Peavy's intangibles are excellent- he is a great competitor and hates to lose. Even though he is statistically not much better than Burnett, he kills him on the injury and competitiveness meters.
He signed a four-year, $52M extension with the Padres last December, but due to his no-trade clause, he will likely look to rework that deal with his new club.
Peavy is an upgrade to any pitching staff, but he is not worth the kind of price tags the Red Sox and Yankees were considering for Santana.
For the Padres, trading Peavy at this point in his career is a no-brainer. I think they believe Peavy is beginning to trend downward, and because of the way their park was constructed, they will always feature good pitching, by default or the fact that pitchers love to throw there. Conversely, they will never convince a major hitter to play for them in free agency and must build the key components of their lineup through the farm system and trades.
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