| Christopher Reina. 20th October, 2008 - 5:21 pm
 Manny Ramirez was the fourth highest paid player in baseball during the 2008 season, making $18.93M.
He was ranked 13th in season FIC (7th amongst hitters) and he 'deserved' a salary of $16M, giving him a Reina Value of -15%.
He will have compete to move up closer to Alex Rodriguez with fellow free agent CC Sabathia, who also was traded midseason and played an incredible stretch of baseball that spearheaded an appearance in the playoffs.
The market indicates that a deal of $20M+ annually is certainly fair for Manny and that isn't even factoring inevitable increases in ratings, gate, and merchandise revenues.
Ichiro Suzuki signed a five-year, $90M extension with the Mariners before he could even entertain a bidding war.
Suzuki is clearly a superior defensive player and will steal a couple dozen bases every year, but his career OPS of .807 is 197 points lower than Manny's 1.004.
Torii Hunter agreed to a five-year, $90M deal with the Angels at a Del Taco in 2007. He is clearly one of the game's best defensive center fielders, but $18M per year for a player that was coming off a season in which he hit .287/.334/.505? Ramirez's worst season was 2007 when he had an OPS of .881, which is still 23 points higher than Hunter's career best.
Alfonso Soriano, a converted second baseman into an average defensive left fielder, signed an eight-year, $136M deal with the Cubs following the 2006 season. He was coming off OPS marks of .911, .821, and .808 over his previous three seasons.
J.D. Drew signed a five-year, $70M deal with the Red Sox following the 2006 season.
Drew, also a Scott Boras client playing for the Dodgers, hit .283/.393/.498 that season. At that point in his career, Drew had a career OPS of .905, which then put him 17th over the time span of his career (98-06) among active outfielders. At that point Ramirez was second among outfielders behind just Barry Bonds, with a mark of 1.041
The model that should apply most similarly in Manny's situation is the three-year, $39M deal Gary Sheffield signed with the Yankees after the 2003 season (contracts were down considerably that offseason, and a certain future Hall of Famer was placed on waivers, which we'll get to shortly). Sheffield represented himself in the negotiations instead of using Boras and worked primarily with George Steinbrenner.
Sheffield had just turned 35 and was coming off a season in which he hit .330/.419/.604 with 39 homers for the Braves.
These numbers are virtually identical to Ramirez's 2008 output of .332/.430/.601. At 36, he is just one year older than Sheffield was at that point and has similarly been described as a malcontent.
But Sheffield's version of malcontent is much different than Manny's. Sheffield has widely had run-ins with coaches and managers, repeatedly asked for trades, and criticized teammates.
At the time of his first foray into free agency, Sheffield also had a career OPS of .928. He complained when Vladimir Guerrero was able to get a long-term deal with the Angels, but Guerrero was just entering his prime being more than seven years younger and had a career OPS of .978 at the time.
Sheffield's production wasn't where it was during his final season in Atlanta, but his first two campaigns in New York resulted in a .927 OPS (2nd in MVP voting) and .891 OPS. He was also playing well in 2006, but a collision with Shea Hillenbrand injured his wrist, forcing him to miss much of the season, and he really hasn't been the same since, hitting for an OPS of .840 and .726 during his two seasons in Detroit.
Despite occasional intermittent eccentric and erratic behavior during eight seasons in the most difficult town in baseball, Ramirez has never been criticized in a truly cogent way by a teammate and has produced at an extremely high level on an annual basis.
The July argument that Boras makes and will continue to make is an excellent one: he hit .347/.473/.587 during that month when his desire to get out was coming to a final head. He wanted out of a town that for better and for worse scrutinized his every move and away from an ownership group that welcomed themselves to him by placing him on waivers following a season in which he hit .325/.427/.587 and was 6th in MVP voting.
That ownership group believed the market was beginning to correct itself (it was, just temporarily) and considered Ramirez overpaid. He responded to that maneuver by hitting .308/.397/.613 with 43 homers and capping the season by becoming MVP of the 2004 World Series.
He responded to finally breaking free of Boston by hitting .396/.489/.743 and 17 homers in 187 at bats with the Dodgers. He hit four homers, scored nine runs, and reached base 24 of his 35 postseason at bats.
But to be certain, the following things will not happen:
- Manny will not be sprinting out infield hits on a consistent basis over the next four or five seasons.
- Manny will not be scoring from first on doubles on a consistent basis over the next four or five seasons.
- Manny will not have an OPS of 1.232 like he had while with the Dodgers on a consistent basis over the next four or five seasons.
- Manny will not be as media friendly and a team leader on a consistent basis over the next four or five seasons.
Beyond the Red Sox paying the remainder of Manny's 2008 salary, these four areas were additional unexpected stocking stuffers for the Dodgers that will not be included in his next contract.
Ramirez will be 37 in 2009 for all intents and purposes, and there have only been 16 seasons on record in which a player has hit for an OPS over 1.000 at 37 or older. Four of those belong to Barry Bonds, four to Ted Williams, two to Babe Ruth, two to Hank Aaron with Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker holding the other four.
There have only been 39 seasons in which a player 37 or older has even hit for an OPS above .900.
Most of those seasons were before the Great Depression, but four of them actually belong to Moises Alou, who has continued to hit at a high level when he's been healthy.
I put Manny Ramirez in that second tier of players beyond Ruth, Williams, and Bonds. His career OPS+ of 155 puts him 19th all-time and 9th among right handed hitters, so I believe he's capable of extending his current level of production another two years, especially if his OBP remains high with how he is pitched to so carefully, before there is a decline.
Age, season, projected OPS
- 37, 2009: .975
- 38, 2010: .925
- 39, 2011: .875
- 40, 2012: .825
He will be worth the premium initially, but unless he morphs into a PED-less, yoga practicing Barry Bonds, he will not be a $20M a year player into year three or four of his deal.
A fair contract that should sanely make both sides happy: Four-years, $100M.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM |
