| Christopher Reina. 14th November, 2008 - 7:25 pm
 2008 Record: 97-64
2008 Pythagorean Record: 98-63
FIC Rank: 2nd
1st in NL Central
2008 Payroll: $118M (8th in MLB, 3rd in NL)
Cost per win: $1.22M (22nd in MLB, 13th in NL)
Cubs Season Review
This was supposed to be the year for the Chicago Cubs. The symmetry of ending a World Series drought 100 years later with the most talented team in the National League resulted in a buildup of a premature Sports Illustrated cover and Wrigleyville bars being asked to stop serving alcohol after the 7th inning of any series clinching home games.
It was all for naught after the Cubs were swiftly dismissed in a three-game sweep by Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers. The Cubs had an OPS of just .628 in that series after posting a mark of .797 in the regular season, first in the NL. That's the difference between Manual Lee of old Blue Jays' fame and Vinny Castilla. They averaged 5.27 runs per game over 162, but just two per night in the three against L.A.
They have plenty of pitching both top to bottom, but the lack of diversity in their lineup has proven to be too vulnerable in each of the past two postseasons. With Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, DeRosa, and Soto, this winter the Cubs desperately need to stick a legitimate left-handed bat in the middle of that string of righties.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Geovany Soto (223rd, 126, +935%) was the NL ROY and was 2nd among catchers in OPS with a mark of .868. He was excellent against lefties and early in counts but left much to be desired in clutch situations.
Henry Blanco (902nd, 11, -88%) recovered from a injury-plagued and ineffective 2007 by hitting .292/.325/.392.
First Base
Derrek Lee (167th, 151, -56%) had his lowest OPS (.823) since 2001 and his lowest slugging percentage since 1999. Beyond the month of April in which he hit .364/.437/.682, Lee didn't have a single month in which his OPS was above .787. Lee has always been a significantly better hitter against lefties, but his OPS dropped all the way down to .785 against righties. Lee, however, was one of the only hitters on the Cubs to show up in all of the playoffs against the Dodgers.
Second Base
Mark DeRosa (93rd, 192, +100%) was yet again the MLB's best utility man, playing 20 or more games at second, right, lef,t and third and was also the Cubs' second most productive hitter. His .857 OPS was easily a career high, as were his 21 homers.
Mike Fontenot (317th, 94, +443%) hit his way into the lineup with a line of .305/.395/.514. He was one of the few productive left-handed hitters Piniella had to work with and was 2nd in OPS among second basemen with at least 200 plate appearances. Furthermore, his OPS was 81 points higher than Brian Roberts, who was a constant object of Jim Hendry's desire.
Third Base
Aramis Ramirez (45th, 225, -15%) was once again in that next strata of third basemen behind A-Rod, Chipper Jones, and David Wright, hitting .289/.380/.518. After hitting more than 30 homers in each of his first three full seasons with the Cubs, he dropped his total to 27 in 2008 and 26 in 2007, suggesting a lasting decline in production. He also continues to be among the least effective defensive third basemen, although with so many strikeout pitchers on their staff, his deficiencies are less of a liability than it would be on another club.
Shortstop
Ryan Theriot (206th, 133, +951%) raised his OBP from .326 to .387 and finished the season with a higher OPS than fellow shortstops Michael Young, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Tejada, and Edgar Renteria. He is a very nice stopgap for the Cubs at the position offensively and certainly is far more productive than Cedeno.
Ronny Cedeno (674th, 34, -2%) is very clearly not the shortstop of the future the Cubs were expecting him to be even though he actually had a good Wrigley split (.834/.575).
Left Field
Alfonso Soriano (173rd, 149, -61%) slugged over .500 for the four consecutive season and sixth over his past seven, but he continues to not get on base enough. In Chicago's wins, he had an OBP of .401 and only .234 in their losses. He hit just 1-for-14 in the ALDS against the Dodgers, a completely unacceptable output for a leadoff hitter. Soriano also saw a huge dip in his production against right-handed hitters, as his OPS dropped to .779 against them, compared to .917 in 2007. He doesn't try to run like he did anymore, and although he might think he's more comfortable hitting leadoff, I would love to see him dropped in the lineup to an RBI position of 5th or 6th, where he chiefly hit in Texas.
Center Field
Jim Edmonds (327th, 92, -75%) looked absolutely done in his 26 games in San Diego, but he rebounded especially well as soon as he joined the Cubs. His .568 slugging percentage with Chicago was his highest output since his .600+ seasons of 2003 and 2004. He had an OPS of .971 at Wrigley, a park that he's always liked.
Reed Johnson (377th, 81, +8%) was somewhere between his excellent 2006 and horrible 2007 in his first season out of Canada, hitting .303/.358/.420. These are numbers that any team can live with from a fourth-and-a-half outfielder (factoring DeRosa in there) who can cover all three positions.
Felix Pie (1198th, -3, -3%) was given the job in center field to begin the season but had an OPS of just .571 in April and May. He came back up in September and actually hit a very good .841 in spot work. The expectations for Pie have justifiably tapered off, but with his trade value far lower than what it was, I believe the Cubs are better served giving him another shot (especially with their dearth of lefties).
Right Field
Kosuke Fukudome (242nd, 119, -46%) had a very brief honeymoon phase (.915 OPS in April) beginning with his great debut on Opening Day against the Brewers. But he hit just .217/.314/.326 in the second half, as that April .392 BAbip predictably didn't hold up. His lefty/righty splits are fairly even, and despite being enemy non grata of the Wrigley faithful, he was 169 OPS points better at home. He doesn't seem to make in-game adjustments very well, and with $38M still owed to him, the Cubs will do everything they can to help him figure it out.
Starting Pitching
Ryan Dempster (24th, 250, +105%) was an All-Star again for the first time since 2000, finishing the year with a 2.96 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 206.7 innings. After four seasons of marginal success as a closer, moving to the rotation just in time for free agency couldn't have been better for Dempster.
Carlos Zambrano (68th, 206, -21%) threw a no-hitter, but it was followed up by an outing against St. Louis in which he had only five outs and yielded eight earned runs. He gave the Cubs a quality start in 57% of his starts, which is considerably worse than the 70% of better that the CC Sabathias, Tim Lincecums, and Johan Santanas.
Ted Lilly (40th, 233, +64%) increased his strikeout rate, but as his WHIP went up (1.140 to 1.226), so did his ERA (3.83 to 4.09) in a season in which pitching made a league wide comeback. Normally excellent against lefties, Lilly yielded an atrocious .928 OPS in 2008.
Rich Harden (74th, 200, +120%) was Chicago's most dominant starter upon his arrival in July, posting a 1.77 ERA and 18 more strikeouts than innings pitched. His 25 starts were almost twice as many as he made in both 2006 and 2007 combined. It truly is scary how dominant he can be if he can string together a few healthy seasons. He became only the 8th different starter to throw at least 145 innings and finish the season with a K/9 of at least 11.
Jason Marquis (171st, 150, -14%) continues to be a serviceable starter so long as he is a fifth starter, as he had a 4.53 ERA pitching to contact. He gave up 35 homers in 2006, but he has lowered his yield in each of his two seasons with the Cubs, and he gave up only 15 this season.
Sean Gallagher (288th, 102, +470%) gave the Cubs 10 starts with an ERA of 4.45 before being dealt to Oakland in the Harden trade. He continued to effectively strikeout batters at a nice clip, but his ERA ballooned to 5.88 while in the AL.
Relief Pitching
Kerry Wood (107th, 186, +96%) was an All-Star for the first time since 2003, his first healthy season in seemingly forever. He saved 34 games and had a 3.26 ERA while striking out 84 batters in 66.3 innings. His return also allowed Dempster to become a starter again with the well-documented benefits and also allowed Marmol to remain as their setup man for another season.
Carlos Marmol (208th, 131, +947%) didn't have a minuscule 1.43 ERA, but with an ERA of 2.68, WHIP of 0.927 and 114 strikeouts, he was still one of the game's best setup men. Since 1982, the year Marol was born, only 9 other relievers have struck out as many batters while saving nine or fewer games. The common thread in this equation that includes names like Mariano, Dibble, Wild Thing, Dotel twice, and even Pedro is that those setup men eventually became closers. His achilles heel, however, continues to be his propensity for giving up the long ball.
Jeff Samardzija (700th, 29, +2%) came up to the Cubs in late July, and although not nearly as dominant, he played the Joba from 2007 role. He still projects as a starter, but proved to be a capable and reliable reliever with a 2.28 ERA and nearly as many strikeouts as innings pitched.
Neal Cotts (689th, 32, -52%) began the season in Iowa,but became their lefty specialist and developed enough confidence in his abilities to rid themselves of the struggling Scott Eyre. He K'd 43 batters in 35.7 innings and had a 4.29 ERA.
Bobby Howry (400th, 75, -73%) saw his ERA elevate to 5.35 after four straight seasons of marks below 3.33. He was especially bad in the second half in which he had a 6.93 ERA.
Michael Wuertz (663nd, 35, -53%) had a 3.63 ERA, but after he gave up four runs to the Reds in 1.1 innings in July, he was unfairly sent down to Iowa where he remained until September.
Jon Lieber (645th, 38, -89%) was beat out for the fifth slot in the rotation by Marquis and gave them a decent long reliever until his season was derailed by a foot injury.
Scott Eyre (612th, 43, -89%) had a tale of two seasons in 2008, as he didn't allow an earned run until the middle of June, but he then gave up nine earned runs in his next 2.1 innings.
Chad Gaudin (296th, 100, +44%) was in charge of carrying Harden's bags when he too came over to the Cubs from Oakland. He struggled in his 24 appearances, posting a 6.26 ERA. |
