| Christopher Reina. 4th December, 2008 - 8:16 pm
 2008 Record: 74-88
2008 Pythagorean Record: 72-90
FIC Rank:
5th in NL Central
2008 Payroll: $74.1 million, 18th in MLB, 10th in NL
Cost per win: $1 million, 14th in MLB, 7th in NL
The Reds were a team I was expecting to be much better in 2008 than they were. With Harang and Arroyo anchoring a rotation that also featured three young high ceiling starters, combined with a mix of veteran bats like Dunn and Griffey with young talent like Bruce and Votto, and an underrated bullpen, Cincinnati could have become a Tampa Bay Rays kind of success story.
But Harang and Arroyo had down years, only Volquez panned out of the young starters and the offense underachieved, which of course was not helped out with the ubiquitous presence of Corey Patterson in center. The Reds' strength was in the pen, which was ranked 8th in the MLB in ERA.
* Individual FIC Rank, Season FIC and Reina Value appear in parenthesis next to each player's name.
The FIC is a statistical system that attempts to objectively rank all players and the Reina Value determines how that performance relates to their contract.
A player with a positive Reina Value outperformed his contract while a negative one means he likely was overvalued.
Catcher
Paul Bako (1272nd, -14, -48%) still gets more at bats than he obviously deserves offensively, but his play behind the plat remains excellent. He had more plate appearances (338) than any year of his 11-year career and the most since 1998 (333). He had a .627 OPS and six homers. The Reds were 42-46 in his starts and he will not return.
David Ross (803rd, 19, -85%) had a .747 OPS with the Reds before they designated him for assignment in August.
Ryan Hanigan (789th, 20, +0%) hit for an OPS of .732 and played well behind the plate in limited action with Cincinnati. They were 13-11 in his starts and he should share catching duties with Wilkin Castillo in 2009.
First Base
Joey Votto (172nd, 150, 1310%) hit .297/.368/.506 in his first full season in the bigs. He led the Reds in a myriad of offensive categories, including on base, slugging and RBIs. He was 9th amongst first basemen in OPS, ahead of staples like Justin Morneau, Carlos Delgado and Derrek Lee.
Scott Hatteberg (1032nd, 3, -79%) hit for an OPS of .493 before he was released in June to clear room for Jay Bruce.
Second Base
Brandon Phillips (207th, 132, +53%) led the Reds in runs (80) and stole bases (25), though he was caught 10 times. Phillips hit for an OPS of .754, down from his .816 in 2007. This decline put him 10th in the MLB at the position.
Third Base
Edwin Encarnacion (264th, 110, +633%) hit 26 homers in 506 at bats, one in every 19.5 at bats. He had an .806 OPS, which is right around his career mark. He'll still be just 26 opening day 2009 and should continue to get better at the plate, though he's likely to continue to be a liability defensively.
Shortstop
Jeff Keppinger (382nd, 79, +235%) grounded into 14 double plays, at least in part because of how infrequently he struck out. He was unable to duplicated his 2007 whatsoever and his .877 OPS dropped 221 points to .656.
Jerry Hairston (269th, 108, +670%) played all over and gave the Reds 271 innings at shortstop, as well as 46 or more innings at center, left, right and second. After two consecutive miserable seasons at the plate, he rebounded by hitting .326/.384/.487. His home/road splits were significant (1.061/.703) and he struggled as a pinch hitter (.393 OPS).
Left Field
Adam Dunn (129th, 173, -44%) had pretty much the same season he's been having since 2004, hitting 40 homers while walking over 100 times and striking out over 160 times. His tenure in Cincinnati ended in August with his trade to the D-Backs.
Chris Dickerson (644, 38, +3%) finally made it to the big leagues and was excellent in his 122 plate appearances, hitting .304/.413/.608 with six homers. The left handed hitter was better against righties than lefties, but his splits were respectable. He was benefited by an unreal .410 BAbip, so his numbers are bound to come down as the book on him develops, fewer of those hits fall in and his high strikeout rate catches up with him.
Center Field
Corey Patterson (672nd, 34, -87%) was spotted as an inevitable disaster from quite a distance away and he delivered upon that. He actually had a decent April, hitting four homers, but he finished the season batting .205/.238/.344.
Ryan Freel (794th, 20, -87%) was hurt for much of the season and saw just 143 plate appearances but he did hit .298/.340/.359, an improvement from 2007 though not as productive as his 2003-2006 stretch.
Right Field
Ken Griffey, Jr. (218th, 128, -49%) hit for an OPS of .787 and 15 homers during his final days with the Reds. His eight-plus seasons were not how anyone would have predicted or drawn them up. He played in 986 games, hitting 213 homers and an OPS of .871, which is 34th in the game during the time-span.
Jay Bruce (579th, 47, +6%) was fifth in ROY voting, slugging .453 with 21 homers. Like many young left-handed hitters, he must improve dramatically against lefties. He hit .562 against them, compared to .869 against righties. He also must become more consistent on the road. Bruce had a nice finish to the season, hitting seven homers in both August and September while hitting for an OPS of .924 in that final month.
Starting Pitching
Bronson Arroyo (72nd, 202, +130%) threw over 200 innings for the fourth consecutive season, though his ERA elevated for the third consecutive season, ballooning to 4.77. Arroyo struggled against lefties and on the road, but he finished the season strong with a 3.47 ERA in the second half. Throw out a bad April and a bad June and Arroyo's ERA is easily in the mid-3.00's. He allowed too many leadoff men on and wasn't sharp enough when he got ahead in the count.
Aaron Harang (153rd, 158, -7%) was once again badly prone to the long ball, giving up 35, which was second only to Brandon Backe. He was 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA; all in all this was the worst season of his career. Harang at least finished the season strong, posting a 3.07 ERA in six starts in September, including a complete game shutout.
Edinson Volquez (32nd, 242, 3467%) led the Reds in ERA, wins and strikeouts. The Josh Hamilton for Volquez trade was one of those rare deals that worked out very well for both sides. He wasn't nearly as dominant in the second half (4.60) as he was in the first (2.29), but he did have more K's than innings pitched.
Johnny Cueto (150th, 159, +1515%) had the inconsistent rookie season that you would expect from a promising young starter. He was brilliant in his first couple of starts, but then went through a rough patch that included just three quality starts over his next seven and finished the season with a quality start percentage of 45%.
Josh Fogg (596th, 45, -73%) came over from the Rockies and had a 7.58 ERA, up from 4.94. He was inexcusably bad throughout the season and there really isn't a silver lining that could be drawn from 2008 for Fogg except the Reds are fortunate they gave him just a one-year contract.
Homer Bailey (937th, 9, +0%) made just eight starts for the Reds, posting a 7.93 ERA and 2.092 WHIP. The Reds had high hopes for Bailey after his initial success in the minors after he was the 7th overall pick in 2004, but he was even human in Triple-A this season, with a 4.77 ERA in 111.1 innings.
Relief Pitching
Francisco Cordero (112th, 184, -7%) had a 3.33 ERA and 34 saves while blowing six in his first season with the Reds. Cordero didn't have as consistent of results at home as he did on the road and he also struggled in the second half, even though his strikeout rate remained good.
Jeremy Affeldt (384th, 79, -56%) had a 3.33 ERA in 78.3 innings while striking out 80 batters, making him one of the league's most valuable lefty relievers.
Mike Lincoln (483rd, 61, -17%) had a 4.48 ERA in his first season in the bigs since 2004 with St. Louis because of multiple surgeries on his right elbow. Lincoln went 19 scoreless innings at one point in the season.
Bill Bray (577th, 47, -40%) had a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings and 63 appearances. He also had an excellent strikeout rate with more than one per inning.
Jared Burton (420th, 72, +153%) had a 3.22 ERA and 58 strikeouts in just over 58 innings.
David Weathers (486th, 61, -79%) had a sub-4.00 ERA for the fourth consecutive season. |
