| Christopher Reina. 27th February, 2009 - 1:13 am
 Skipper Jerry Manuel is experimenting with batting Jose Reyes in the third hole during Spring Training, where the Mets believe he will mellow him out and that he also has enough talent to legitimately thrive in that slot.
There is an intangible significance in batting third and placing Reyes in this slot will make him the de facto pivot point of the offense, whereas he is the unequivocal trigger guy in the leadoff position.
Should they make this a permanent move and it's a long ways from that, this would move Luis Castillo to the leadoff position and Carlos Beltran to the two hole and Reyes would be followed by David Wright and Carlos Delgado.
It initially sounds like an idea concocted in Mr. Met's lair, because if any modern player is built to be a classic leadoff man it is Jose Reyes, but let's look at some numbers before dismissing the concept.
Extra Base Hits in 2008
Wright: 78
Reyes: 72
Beltran: 72
Beltran hits many more homers, but Reyes already matched him in terms of extra base hits last year and I expect Reyes to surpass him this season. In other words, Reyes has enough power to hit further down the lineup than just leadoff.
With Reyes batting in the third slot, he will face many more situations with runners on base. He hit .274/.377/.438 (.814 OPS) with men on, .306/.349/.401 (.840 OPS) with the bases empty and .277/.382/.462 (.844 OPS) with runners in scoring position in 2008. For his career, those OPS numbers adjust to .800 with runners on, .760 with the bases cleared and .840 with runners in scoring position.
How does this compare to Beltran?
Beltran hit .901 with men on, .851 with the bases empty and .881 with runners in scoring position in 2008 and his career totals are .910, .806 and .920 respectively.
This is the tip of the iceberg in why moving Reyes to the third slot is a bad idea; he is plenty talented enough to do hit there, but it devalues Beltran. The Mets would neuter Beltran in the process and also neuter Reyes' speed.
The second hole should be reserved for contact, situational hitters that aren't big RBI producers; that description defines Castillo precisely, so it would make as much sense to bat Beltran lead off if the Mets were adamant about giving Reyes some third slot at bats.
Beltran's righty splits have become dramatically better than his numbers as a lefty, so on most days the Mets wouldn't lose a whole lot by this lineup, except there would be a slight net loss in speed though Beltran is a higher OBP hitter.
I think this whole experiment and discussion is a result of an excessively lengthy Spring Training and the opening day lineup and final game of the year lineup will be the same as it ever was for the Mets.
- Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM.com |
