* Projected Record is a formula that takes projected team OPS, starters ERA and relievers ERA into account in order to get a projected runs scored and runs allowed per game. Those figures are then inserted into the Pythagorean record formula.
The Mets' bullpen blew win after win in 2008, so Omar Minaya looked to fix that problem and acquired two closers over the offseason. He signed Francisco Rodriguez to an affordable contract and also acquired J.J. Putz in a three-way trade involving the Indians.
They also waited out Oliver Perez and signed him to a three-year, $36M contract after striking out on Derek Lowe.
I also like making Livan Herandez the fifth starter; if you can't afford to sign John Smoltz to be your 5a. starter, then a notorious innings eater is an excellent alternative.
Even with Manny Ramirez lingering for four months and the plummet of Bobby Abreu's asking price, the Mets decided not to make any changes to their offense, which could become problematic as this preview goes on.
No Dumb Questions
1. Can Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Delgado stay as absurdly healthy as they did in 2008?
2. Can Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine combine for an ERA under 4.00?
3. Will they get enough production out of 'not your typical New York' corner outfielders Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church?
4. Are the blown saves woes officially behind Charlie Manuel?
5. Is Johan Santana good for 33 starts and two more in the NLDS?
Maximizing Potential
The Mets have as much high end talent as any team in the National League, with four offensive players that enter any given season capable of winning an MVP, plus the best starter of his generation. The health of those five players (Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado and Santana for those scoring at home) is absolutely imperative if the Mets will mark the inaugural season of Citi Field with a playoff berth.
The Bobby Valentine teams had better overall depth and balance and because they rely so heavily on those four players, the rough patches to close each of the past two seasons are really unavoidable.
I'm not as big of a believer in Daniel Murphy as some people who drink the water in Long Island might be, but I like his game a lot and he's had a very promising Spring Training. I would like him better at second base, with Manny in left field, but he really should put up really nice numbers in the two slot.
Ryan Church and Brian Schneider have also swung a solid bat in Spring Training, but whatever they can get out of those two guys offensively will strictly be a bonus.
What Will Likely Happen
On the law of averages, you really have to like the Mets in the NL East. The end of the past two seasons weren't strictly aberrations, the Mets clearly admitted that and are much stronger now because of it.
It will be interesting to see how Citi Field plays, because the Mets' pitching has always put up great numbers at Shea Stadium. The rotation has a wider potential ERA range than just about any other in the National League. Johan will be Johan as long as he's healthy, but can Maine and Perez (who is apparently on the portly side this spring) realistically bounce back and to where they were in 2007? I think they are both more likely to have a lower ERA than Pelfrey, who had the third lowest K/9 ratio amongst pitchers with an ERA below 4.00.
Offensively, I see Delgado regressing and not hitting 38 homers again, but I expect Wright, Reyes and Beltran to have monster seasons and split some MVP votes.
I don't expect the Mets to score nearly enough runs to coast into the playoffs like they did in 2006. That team scored 834 runs, while the 2007 Mets scored 804 and of course they only scored 799 last year. I expect them to be only marginally better offensively and there are too many non-threatening outs six through nine.
What Do They Have In The Pipeline
The Mets have had a strong hold in the Latin America market for several seasons now and that really hasn't changed as Fernando Martinez remains their top prospect, though I see Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte gaining on him in some respects.
Omar Minaya also has some promising prospects that they acquired via the draft in Reese Havens and Brad Holt.
The Mets have had solid success in the draft since 2001 with first rounders David Wright, Scott Kazmir, Mike Pelfrey, Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman all being regular big leaguers, though of course in varying degrees of success.
