| Christopher Reina. 29th July, 2009 - 2:22 pm
 One team between the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays will not make the playoffs this season, regardless of how many victories they each end up with. A two-division league would potentially fix that and also make the situation more bearable for the Jays and Orioles since they would have more games against those weaker AL Central clubs.
The Rays are the safe bet to not have a chair when the music stops playing.
1. Decline of Starting Pitching
Scott Kazmir's brilliant outing against the Yankees on Tuesday lowered his ERA to 6.22 and was his first win in two months. Matt Garza, Jeff Nienmann and James Shields each have ERAs under respectably under 4.00, but Andy Sonnanstine has an ERA at 6.61 and David Price has inconsistently been in the mid 5.00's.
Last season, the low end of their rotation had ERAs of 4.38 and 4.42 from Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson respectively. The trio of Kazmir, Sheilds and Garza were firmly in the mid 3.00's.
Overall, the Rays are 20th in the MLB in starter ERA with a mark of 4.68. Last season they finished 6th with a collective ERA of 3.95.
2. Quiet Bats
Ben Zobrist, who has an .889 OPS in July, is the only hitter on the Rays roster with a mark above .750.
Evan Longoria hit for a blistering OPS of 1.133 in April and a still excellent .938 in May, but has been dropping like a stone since his hamstring injury in early June. He has an .885 OPS overall, which is of course very good but he has shown little signs of pulling out of his prolonged slump.
Carlos Pena has been putting up better power numbers, but has struck with much more frequency and his OBP has dipped to .345.
B.J. Upton not only has come down from his remarkable 2008 postseason which he hit for an OPS of .985 with seven homers in 66 at bats, but also from his .894 OPS in 2007 and .784 OPS in 2008 to a .706 OPS this season. He has seven homers in 385 at bats while striking out much more frequently.
Carl Crawford and Jason Bartlett, however, are putting up much better numbers in 2009.
3. One-Run Games
The Rays finished the season with a 29-18 record (.617) in one-run games, but are just 15-16 (.484) this season.
It doesn't really jive with their bullpen, which is currently ranked fourth in ERA with a 3.52 mark. Last season they were fifth, so they haven't tailed off there whatsoever.
The Rays have been playing from behind, as evidenced by their drop in starting pitching above. They also have been even more clutch, with an .801 OPS in 'Late & Close' situations last season and .808 OPS this season.
The defense hasn't been nearly as good overall, they are 20th in fielding percentage, compared to 10th last year. |
