| Lee Dorner. 20th December, 2009 - 9:02 pm
 The Seattle Mariners have been the busiest team in the bigs this offseason, and their acquisition of former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee is no doubt the biggest deal second-year Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik has pulled off during his time in the Emerald City.
The M’s sent prospects Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and Juan Ramirez to Philadelphia as part of a three-way deal that saw the reigning NL champs net Roy Halladay, while Seattle picked up Lee and Toronto made off with a trio of Phillies prospects in Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor.
Sound familiar?
It wasn’t too long ago that former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi thought it would be a good idea to sell the farm in exchange for another big-name starting pitcher. Just in case the Erik Bedard trade was so traumatic for Seattle fans that it has been repressed from memory, here is a quick refresher:
A few solid seasons in Baltimore had Bedard looking like he was on track to becoming one of the league’s top pitchers, and the Mariners bought into the hype just before the 2008 season when they shipped off a slew of young talent to acquire the Canadian lefty.
The Mariners sent top prospect Adam Jones and solid reliever George Sherrill to Baltimore, along with three other hot pitching prospects in Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler.
Bedard went 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 182 innings with Baltimore in 2007, and the Mariners thought he would strengthen the top of their rotation and help them make some serious noise in the AL West, giving them one of the most formidable one-two punches in the big leagues along with Felix Hernandez. He had the credentials of a guy who could put a team over the top and into serious contention, but even if he had stayed healthy in Seattle it would be difficult to justify throwing away the kind of talent the Mariners did for one starting pitcher unless he led them on a few deep playoff runs.
That certainly didn’t happen, as the Mariners still haven’t seen the playoffs since their record-setting 2001 season. Bedard has only started 15 games in each of his two seasons in Seattle, and despite good numbers in the limited innings he has pitched, a quick review of the players involved in the trade will make it very obvious (painfully so, for Mariners fans) who won this deal.
Bedard has made a grand total of 30 starts in his two seasons as a Mariner while dealing with a string of injury problems, including a torn labrum that required season-ending surgery in 2008. He underwent another exploratory surgery in August of 2009 which revealed further damage to his shoulder, putting him in jeopardy of missing spring training and perhaps part of the 2010 season.
Meanwhile, after making the AL All-Star team in 2008 with 31 saves in 37 chances for Baltimore, Sherrill went on to have another stellar half-season for the Orioles in 2009, converting 20 of 23 save opportunities and sporting a 2.40 era on the year before being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers just before the trade deadline. Although he is primarily a closer or set-up man, Sherrill has pitched about three-quarters as many innings as Bedard over the past two years.
Adam Jones also became an All-Star with the Orioles, as he made the team and picked up a Gold Glove in center field in 2009. His offensive numbers haven’t been mind-blowing, but at just 24 years old he still has room to grow and his 70 RBIs, 19 homeruns and .277 average last season cemented his status as Baltimore’s center fielder of the future.
Chris Tillman was ranked 16th in Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 Prospects for 2009, and he didn’t disappoint, going 8-6 with a 2.70 ERA at AAA Norfolk before being promoted to the big leagues and making 12 starts for the Orioles in August and September. As if this trade wasn’t already lop-sided enough with Baltimore picking up an All-Star closer and center fielder to offset one chronically injured starter, Tillman should have a chance to establish himself as a permanent major league starter in 2010. Pretty impressive for a 21-year-old.
Reliever Kam Mickolio saw some time with the big club as a late call-up in both 2008 and 2009, and would probably be a sure bet to see more of the Orioles’ bullpen in 2010 if not for a shoulder injury that could potentially cut into his work load in Spring Training. Still, the 6’9, 255-pounder has some people talking about him as a future closer if he can develop better off-speed stuff and improve his command.
Tony Butler has seen his progress slowed by a shoulder injury. He pitched a total of 13 innings last year in the minors while seeing plenty of time on the DL, and scouts don’t seem optimistic about his recovery and overall progress, so at least the Mariners won’t lose any sleep over giving him up.
But any way you look at it, the Mariners gave up a solid, proven late-inning guy in Sherrill, a young all-star centre fielder in Jones, one of the best starting pitcher prospects in baseball in Tillman and another strong reliever prospect in Mickolio, all for a starter who hasn’t thrown a full year’s worth of innings in the two seasons combined that he has been in Seattle.
And because it worked out so well last time, the Mariners have decided to ship off another crew of enticing prospects for another big arm in their rotation in preparation for the 2010 season.
But this time it’s different…no, really, it is. And here are three reasons why:
1. Not selling the future
Heading in to the 2008 season, Jones was the Mariners’ top prospect. Although he hadn’t made much noise in his two stints as a late season call-up for the Mariners, he hit .314 with 25 homeruns in 101 games at AAA Tacoma in 2007, and most scouts knew it was just a matter of time before Jones developed into a legitimate major league-caliber centre fielder; a feat he has certainly accomplished in Baltimore.
Sherrill was already an established major leaguer when Seattle dealt him, and Tillman was one of the hottest starting pitcher prospects in the minors.
It’s one thing to deal a bunch of lower level prospects, or one or two good prospects, but a deal that has you giving up a major league reliever, two top prospects AND two more respectable pitching prospects for one player in return has “you will regret this” stamped all over it.
But in dealing Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez for Lee, the Mariners aren’t losing anyone who is near major league-ready status. Aumont is probably the closest, having posted good numbers in his first two seasons in the minors, but he wasn’t overly impressive after moving up to AA last season, and injuries could slow his road to the majors.
The Gatineau, Quebec native was drafted in the first round of 2007 as a starter, but has since made the transition to the bullpen. Although Aumont denies that a recurring hip problem is the cause, many analysts have speculated that the injury was a motivating factor in his move to the pen.
A 6'7" beast on the mound with a hard sinking fastball and pretty good command according to scouting reports, Aumont undoubtedly possesses the raw tools to be a major league pitcher at some point, if his health issues don’t weigh him down. Still, his transition to reliever lowers his value, and his nagging hip issues will keep scouts and GMs wary as he rises through the ranks.
Gillies was a late-round pick who has been slowly climbing the ladder by overachieving in the minors despite his limited power. His quick, compact swing won’t produce home run distance very often (if ever), but consistent line-drive hitting combined with good speed allowed him to be a productive player for the Mariners’ advanced-A High Desert team in 2009.
He hit .341 for the Mavericks and demonstrated the kind of aggressive running and hustle that would have Mike Scioscia salivating. He stole 44 bases in 124 games last season, and has built a reputation as a guy who will stretch base-hits into doubles and go first-to-third on a regular basis. He also had the best throwing arm of any Seattle prospect, according to Baseball America. But the California League is notorious for producing inflated offensive numbers, and Gillies’ slap-and-slash, Ichiro-esque approach to hitting doesn’t leave much room for his almost non-existent power numbers to improve.
Maybe he will move up to double or triple-A and prove that he can still produce at higher levels of competition. Or maybe he has hit his ceiling at advanced-A and will never develop into a big-leaguer. Only time will tell.
Juan Ramirez is, like Gillies, a bit of a wild card in this deal. His fastball tops out around 96 mph and he is in the process of developing a curveball, but scouting reports say that process has been a slow one. Ramirez has been getting by in the minors with his overpowering fastball, but has not yet shown the kind of command that will allow him to be successful beyond advanced-A.
Even if all three players that the Phillies picked up in this trade achieve their full potential, the Mariners will still have given up less than they did in the Bedard trade. And barring absolute disaster, they will be getting a whole lot more in return, because...
2. Cliff Lee is not Erik Bedard
He is better.
Bedard looked like he could become one of the league’s best starters, but he wasn’t there yet. He had never thrown more than 200 innings in a season and only had one truly brilliant year era-wise before Seattle picked him up.
Lee on the other hand has hit the 200-inning mark four times in his career, so his durability is well-established. His era was 2.54 for 2008 and 3.22s last season, so we know he wasn’t a one-year wonder, and he was lights-out in the 2009 playoffs, proving he can be a big-game pitcher if the Mariners do become a postseason contender.
And speaking of the playoffs…
3. The 2010 Mariners can contend in the AL West
The Mariners went 85-77 in 2009 and finished 12 games back of the Angels, which isn’t bad for a team that scored the second-fewest runs in the major leagues. Zduriencik decided that with the Angels losing their ace John Lackey this offseason, and the Rangers still in search of some reliable, consistent pitching, 2010 is the year for the Mariners to make their move in the AL West.
Zdurienick killed two birds with one stone in signing third-baseman Chone Figgins away from the Angels. This move is a deep cut to the Angels based on the way they like to play baseball – by getting on base and utilizing their speed.
Figgins posted a .395 OBP last season, which will be a very welcome boost to a Mariners lineup that was dead-last at getting on base in 2009. Figgins has the tools to hit in the two-spot for Seattle and he has stolen at least 40 bases in four of the past five seasons. With Ichiro leading off in front of him, the Mariners could have one of the most effective one-two combinations in the league at the top of their line-up.
Adrian Beltre could still sign back with the Mariners, though that seems unlikely at this point given his desire for a multi-year deal and a more hitter-friendly environment than Safeco Field. Obviously Figgins will take over at third if Beltre splits, but even if he stays, the Mariners will find a way to work him into the line-up as an everyday player.
Zduriencik also shed some of his excess pitching for another offensive upgrade in the recent Milton Bradley trade. The Mariners get the troubled outfielder in exchange for Carlos Silva, and though his attitude problems have been well-documented, Bradley could be an important piece of the offensive puzzle for the M’s in 2010. Before seeing his numbers dip during his stint with the Cubs in 2009, Bradley hit .321 with a .436 obp and 22 home runs in 2008.
If he stays focused on his job on the field and puts up the kind of numbers he is capable of, the Mariners have the makings of a respectable offensive squad heading into the new season.
So...
Will Lee have the Mariners playing their first October baseball since 2001? Quite possibly. All the right pieces seem to be there, and the Mariners are certainly hoping that if things work out well this season, Lee will sign on for a few more years. If that all comes to pass, this trade and indeed this entire offseason will go down as one of the best in recent memory from a Mariners perspective.
But even if it all goes wrong and the M’s have another 2008-style disaster of a season on their hands by the All-Star break, Lee should be some pretty tasty trade bait for any team looking to make a postseason push. Or if they hang on to him for the year and lose him to free agency, the M’s get two compensatory draft picks to offset the prospects they gave up.
It seems like a foolproof deal for Seattle, but with the ill-advised trades and signings of the Bill Bavasi era still fresh in many minds, Mariners fans will be looking for some on-field results from their newest big-ticket addition before any parade routes are planned out. |
