| Lee Dorner. 21st January, 2010 - 7:45 pm
 Flame-throwing Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman has had Major League Baseball all abuzz since his impressive showing in the 2007 Baseball World Cup, and just three years, two defection attempts and one $30 million contract later, the most sought-after left-handed prospect in baseball has a home in the bigs. The fact that a 22-year-old lefty, who’s been clocked at 102 mph, received a fat major league contract should surprise no one. What is rather surprising, however, is that despite so many teams showing interest in his services, it was the relatively small-market Cincinnati Reds who eventually came out on top in the Chapman sweepstakes.
Of course the usual suspects were in the hunt for Chapman, including the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels. Depending on who you ask, about half of the MLB’s clubs have been linked to Chapman at some point during this offseason. So how did the Reds, of all teams, outbid them all?
Short answer: Because nobody really knows what they are getting with this guy.
Chapman’s upside is tremendous, but there were just too many unknowns for some clubs’ liking, which allowed smaller-market teams like the Reds and Marlins to throw their hats into the ring.
The Yankees were originally said to be interested in Chapman, but nothing significant materialized out of that.
The Red Sox were one of the first teams to put an offer on the table, as they tried their luck with a $15.5 million, three-year deal in early December, and subsequent offers from the Blue Jays and Angels pushed the bar up to around $23 million, but not many teams were willing to go any higher than that for a pitcher they knew next to nothing about.
Jose Contreras, another Cuban defector, may have had something to do with that. Like Chapman, Contreras generated a lot of buzz upon his defection to the MLB, but after signing a $32 million contract with the Yankees in 2002, he has only had one full season as a starter with a sub-4.20 ERA. Contreras was also much more established as a pitcher when he came to the majors, already 31-years-old. His spotty transition to the MLB may have made some clubs wary of buying into the hype with the latest hot-shot Cuban defector who is barely out of his teens, and is leaving behind a wife and newborn son in Cuba.
Because he has been plying his trade in the Cuban National League, very little is known about Chapman’s pitching history up to this point. All that scouts and executives from the majors have to go on, besides his stats from Cuba, are a few inconsistent international appearances. After winning two games in the 2007 Baseball World Cup, including an eight-inning, one-hit and 11 strikeout performance against South Korea, he had a disappointing showing at the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
It’s easy to get excited about a guy who can produce triple digits on the radar gun, but his recent on-field results have made it difficult for major league GMs to justify forking over huge amounts of cash to a player surrounded by so many question marks.
He did hit 102 mph on the gun against Japan in the 2009 WBC, but his numbers for the tournament were disappointing, as he checked out with a 5.68 ERA and four walks in 6.1 innings.
His 4.03 ERA in 118 innings with Holgun of the Cuban National League isn’t terrible, but considering the much tougher level of competition he will be facing in the majors, it isn’t very comforting either. At least not to Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty, or anyone else who cheers for the Reds.
It would be foolish to ignore Chapman’s awesome potential though, just because some of his recent performances haven’t lived up to the hype that comes along with such an electrifying arm. Many scouts are saying that Chapman still has a lot of developing to do before he’s major league-ready, so any team who pursued him in contract negotiations knew they would be taking a significant risk in signing him. He could turn out to be a bit of a project, but he has the stuff to be dominant if he matures as a pitcher.
Although his fastball can certainly be overpowering, topping out at 102 and reaching the high-90s frequently, his control and secondary pitches appear to need lots of work. Walks have been his Achilles heel in Cuba and in international play. His walk numbers with Holgun of the Cuban National League have improved every year, but he still averaged 4.7 BB/9 innings last season. That number is far too high for a guy to be a reliable starter at the major league level. He relies on his fastball and slider, while occasionally mixing in his developing curveball or changeup. He will need to get comfortable with at least one more good off-speed pitch to have success in the majors, which will take some time.
But there is a reason many scouts consider him the best lefty pitching prospect in the world right now. His slider has pitching coaches salivating because it’s extremely difficult for a hitter to pick up. Unlike his off-speed pitches, which sometimes cause him to slow his arm speed down, Chapman’s slider comes from the exact same arm slot and motion as his fastball, making it hard for hitters to read what pitch he is throwing. His incredible velocity amplifies this problem for hitters, because they have so little time to make a decision with triple-digit gas bearing down on them.
Chapman’s contract with the Reds will keep him in Cincinnati for at least five years, with a player option for a sixth year. That should be plenty of time for him to work his way into a major league rotation, but don’t expect it to happen overnight. He appears to have the potential to be an elite starter one day, but he won’t become an instant star at baseball’s highest level of competition, like some people expect him to be. He will likely begin the year in the minors, and it’s almost impossible to say how quickly he will develop until he gets some innings under his belt in the Reds’ farm system.
Still, the Reds think the reward will be worth the risk, and it very well could be. If Chapman does develop into a legitimate big league starter, the Reds could have a truly formidable starting rotation in a couple years. Former top prospect Homer Bailey has struggled through his first few years of major league service, but the 23-year-old may have turned a corner late last season, as he finished with a 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA in his final nine starts. Johnny Cueto, 24, also suffered through some tough stretches last season but finished strong, and ended up winning 11 games. And of course there’s Edinson Volquez, who had an All-Star 2008 season in which he won 17 games, but has spent more time on the disabled list than the mound since then. He is projected to rejoin the Reds sometime this summer though, after he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and at just 26-years-old, he should still have plenty of good innings left in him if he can overcome his injury troubles. If everything comes together with all those talented arms, the Reds have four starters age 26 or younger who have top-of-the-rotation potential. They have a lot of payroll tied up in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, who haven’t performed well enough over the past two seasons to justify their salaries, but if the club passes on the 2011 option that exists in both of their contracts, that will free up $23.75 million in payroll which will go a long way in keeping the Reds’ rising stars in Cincinnati.
So Chapman seems to be a good fit for Cincinnati, but how he responds to his new and very different life in America remains to be seen. He wouldn’t be the first 100+ mph prodigy to flame out and struggle in the majors. Maybe in a few years he will realize his seemingly limitless potential and become an elite MLB pitcher, or maybe he will pull a Joel Zumaya and hurt himself playing Guitar Hero, becoming another name on the list of big-time fireballers to become a bust. Chapman is most definitely a wildcard at this point, but even though he probably isn’t ready for the big club yet, he should become an impact player for the Reds in the near future if he adjusts well to professional baseball in the U.S. |
