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| 1st October, 2008 - 1:37 am | Christopher Reina/RealGM - The Phillies reached the playoffs a year ago for the first time since 1993 and won the NL East again this season, making their first back-to-back October appearance since 1981, a stretch where they reached the postseason six times in eight seasons during that Mike Schmidt/Steve Carlton era.
The Brewers, after squandering a 5.5 game lead in the Wildcard and losing Manager Ned Yost along the way, are in the playoffs for the first time since 1982 and the first time as a member of the National League.
First Base: Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are somewhat mirror images of one another as fearsome left-handed and largely one-dimensional sluggers.
Howard has been improbably hot during the last stretch of the season, hitting 11 homers and batting .352/.422/.852 during the month of September.
No player has hit more homers during his 3rd, 4th, and 5th seasons in the MLB than Howard and his 153 homers.
After hitting 50 homers and slugging .618 at 23, Fielder hit 34 homers and slugged .507 this season.
Edge: Phillies
Second Base: Chase Utley began the season as a leading MVP candidate hitting 25 homers in his first 94 games but quickly faded and hit just eight over the remaining 65. While certainly still an above average hitter for the position, Utley's .812 OPS in September won't put the fear of god into any Milwaukee pitcher. He also will need to rebound from the 2007 NLDS when he went 2-for-11 and struck out five times.
Rickie Weeks' OPS dropped from .807 to .740 this season, but he was significantly better in the second half and hit for an OPS of .944 in September. He was their leadoff hitter for much of the year but has done well batting in the 7th hole. Ray Durham will also see some time at second in this series against righties (.837 OPS).
Edge: Phillies
Shortstop: Rollins' OPS was 89 points lower than it was during his MVP season while his homer total dropped by 19, but he had a higher OBP and a much better stolen base percentage. He didn't all of a sudden start hitting homers again as the season went on, but he did have an .869 OPS in September despite struggling most recently.
J.J. Hardy wasn't an All-Star again in 2008, but he finished the season with an OPS of .821, which was a 35 point improvement over 2007. He was better on the road and against lefties in 2008 and has hit extremely well against Cole Hamels (1.235 OPS in 12 plate appearances).
Edge: Even
Third Base: Pedro Feliz and Bill Hall have each struggled throughout their careers of having an OBP of over .300. Feliz did it for the first time since 2004 this season (.302,) and Hall's dipped to .293 this season.
Feliz and Hall have both been incredibly inept recently, but at least the Brewers have been wise enough to give Craig Counsell some time out there to see if he might stick better against the wall from time to time. Counsell has postseason experience, but that hasn't come since 2001 and his .618 OPS can hardly be considered good.
Edge: Brewers
Left Field: Like Utley, Pat Burrell did the majority of his damage in the first half of the season and has hit neither for average or power since July.
Ryan Braun wasn't able to replicate his historical rookie slugging percentage, but it still was a highly respectable .553. Even though his OPS was just .661 in September, he had a lot of big hits including that walk off against Pittsburgh last Thursday. Besides the current slump, Braun is hitting just .063/.250/.313 at Citizens Bank Park in 16 at bats.
Edge: Brewers
Center Field: Shane Victorino is a nice complementary hitter, with his .352 OBP and .447 slugging combined with his ability to steal bases. Unlike so many other Phillies, Victorino played better down the stretch, hitting .344/.378/.516 in September.
Mike Cameron had a very Mike Cameron kind of year, hitting 20+ homers, stealing a dozen+ bases, and playing a good center field. Cameron was struggling terribly down the stretch until becoming the club's leadoff hitter. Cameron got at least one hit and one run in each of the Brewers' final six games, and Dale Sveum has seemingly found a little magic with the mix.
Edge: Even
Right Field: Jayson Werth had a career season in the power department (.498 slugging) and became an unexpected surprise at the corner outfield slot. He struggled in September after an August where he played way over his head.
Corey Hart's OPS was 133 points better in 2007 than this season as he his OBP and slugging both dropped substantially. He was much better against lefties and on the road, both of which could be useful against Hamels. He had an atrocious .437 OPS in September.
Edge: Phillies
Starting Pitching: Cole Hamels and his 3.09 ERA will start Game 1 for the Phillies. Despite the hitter friendly dimensions, Hamels was better at home, and he was also better in the second half. His 4.41 ERA in five starts against the Brewers is concerning, but he gave up just two earned runs over 6.1 innings in his start against the club in mid-September.
Yovani Gallardo, who has pitched just four innings since having surgery on his ACL in May, gets the ball in Game 1 for the Brewers. He is young and has great stuff, posting a 3.67 ERA in 17 starts last year and a 1.88 ERA in 24 innings in 2008. Not having Ben Sheets is immeasurably costly, but Gallardo's upside could allow the Brewers to steal this first game.
Brett Myers' 4.55 ERA for 2008 is unquestionably unimpressive. So is the fact that he gave up 14 earned runs in his past two starts. But his 1.65 ERA over six starts in August was a stretch of true dominance.
CC Sabathia will pitch on short rest in Game 2, and his 1.65 ERA and 11-2 record in 17 starts for the Brewers is already legendary. On a certain level I hope he gets the Cy Young or MVP because the impact he made on the NL since the beginning of July is so remarkable that it deserves to be talked about 20 years from now. Can he improve that 7.17 postseason ERA this time around? He will be paid in the Johan/Zito range regardless, but if he can become 2008's Josh Beckett, the price tag will truly be exorbitant.
This, of course, won't be Jaime Moyer's first rodeo, and he will be on the hill for the Phillies when they meet a raucous Milwaukee crowd in Game 3. His 3.71 ERA was his lowest since he was in Seattle back in 2003. He is 1-3 lifetime in the postseason, but he has a 2.43 ERA.
The Brewers will counter with Jeff Suppan, who has a 4.96 ERA, but has a lifetime 3.00 ERA in nine starts in the playoffs. He unexpectedly was excellent in both the 2006 NLCS against the Mets (two starts/0.60 ERA) and against the Tigers (three earned runs in six innings); maybe he'll catch lightning twice?
David Bush and Joe Blanton will likely be the Game 4 starters and this figures to be a long night for the relievers and a high scoring affair. Blanton has been better since coming to the NL and was really good in August and finished strong in the second half of September. Throwing out his April and May, Bush has been a steady starter for the Brewers and will keep walks at a minimum.
Edge: Phillies
Relievers: There are only a few things you need to know when it comes to comparing bullpens:
The Phillies' bullpen had a 3.22 ERA while the Brewers were far behind with a mark of 3.89.
The Brewers blew 26 saves (7th worst in the MLB) and the Phillies blew 15 (3rd best). Brad Lidge was dead perfect in his save opportunities, as he recaptured his pre-meltdown stuff.
He's supported by quality righties like Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin and lefties J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre.
Eric Gagne is not even remotely close to the reliever he was with the Dodgers, and he was replaced as closer by Salomon Torres who I gave up on in 1993 and need to pinch myself to that he'll actually be pitching playoff baseball in 2008.
Guillermo Mota, Seth McClunt, Manny Parra and Brian Shouse will be called upon, but will need to all overachieve to work through the meat of the Phillies' lineup.
Edge: Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in 5
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM [READ] |
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